Stanford students belong to the first generation that could witness the end of extreme global poverty — in what would be one of humankind's greatest achievements — the head of the World Bank said during a recent talk on campus.

But their generation, he said, is also likely to experience the first global pandemic since the 1918 influenza that killed more than 50 million people.

Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, said innovations in health, education and finance are behind the World Bank's twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity for the bottom 40 percent of the global population.

Speaking at the inaugural conference of the Stanford Global Development and Poverty Initiative on Oct. 29, Kim lauded faculty and students for their multidisciplinary approach in tackling poverty and improving public health. He is an infectious disease physician who oversaw World Health Organization initiatives on HIV/AIDS.

"Seeking transformative solutions to challenges of development and poverty that are necessarily cross-disciplinary is exactly what a great university should be doing," Kim said in his speech at Stanford.

The World Bank announced last month that the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day is expected to drop to 9.6 percent of the global population by the end of the year. That is down from 36 percent in 1990.

The bank has pledged to cut that rate to 3 percent by 2030.

"We expect the extreme poverty rate to drop below 10 percent for the first time in human history," he said. "This is the best news in the world today. And this is the first generation in human history that has been able to see that potential outcome." 

Promoting prosperity

One of the co-founders of Partners in Health, Kim was the keynote speaker at the daylong conference, "Shared Prosperity and Health," which drew together Stanford faculty and researchers, plus government and NGO officials from around the world.

Stanford's global development and poverty effort is a university-wide initiative of the Stanford Institute for Innovation in Developing Economies, known as Stanford Seed, and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. The conference was held at Stanford's Graduate School of Business, which was a partner in the event.

Kim's talk was optimistic about the newly adopted U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, with an ambitious agenda to end poverty and hunger, ensure healthy lives, empower women and girls and attain quality education for all children by 2030.

While those goals seem lofty, Kim pointed to the accomplishment of bringing down extreme poverty to 10 percent, a figure many had once said was impossible.

Ninety-one percent of children in developing countries now attend primary school, up from 83 percent in 2000, he said. And the number of people on antiretroviral drugs for treatment of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa has increased eightfold in the last decade.

"But we're humbled by the challenges ahead," Kim said. "Rising global temperatures will have devastating impacts on poor countries and poor people – and, as we saw with Ebola, major pandemics are likely to disproportionately affect the poor."

Pandemic threats

Kim said that most virologists and infectious disease experts are certain a pandemic will sweep the world in the next 30 years. He said that would lead to more than 30 million deaths and anywhere from 5 to 10 percent of lost GDP.

He blasted the global community for taking eight months to respond to the Ebola crisis in West Africa, noting that Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia had among the fastest growing economies in Africa before the outbreak killed more than 11,000 people – most of whom were poor.

In an effort to speed up financial aid the next time such an outbreak occurs, the World Bank is developing the Pandemic Emergency Facility, which would disburse funding immediately to national governments and responding agencies.

Rajiv Shah, the administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development from 2010-2015, spoke earlier at the conference about his work leading the U.S. efforts to contain Ebola.

"Three small countries with total population of maybe 30 million people had such weak health systems with so little domestic investment – in one country $6 per capita health investment per year – that when Ebola became a crisis there was no first-line of defense," he said.

By October 2014, the U.S. was pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into containment efforts, including the establishment of a 2,500-personnel military deployment to hit Ebola on the ground. Shah said President Obama "stayed extraordinarily true to the science" of containment at the source.

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Stunted children 

Moving beyond containment of epidemics, Kim said the most important investment developing countries could make in their people starts when a woman becomes pregnant. Using a combination of health, nutrition and education will have lifelong benefits for each child, as well as for the country in which each prospers.

The World Bank estimates that 26 percent of all children under age 5 in developing countries are stunted, which means they are malnourished and under-stimulated, risking a loss of cognitive abilities that lasts a lifetime. The number climbs to 36 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, giving those children limited prospects in life."This is a disgrace, a global scandal and, in my view, akin to a medical emergency," Kim said. "Children who are stunted by age 5 will not have an equal opportunity in life. If your brain won't let you learn and adapt in a fast-changing world, you won't prosper and, neither will society. All of us lose."

From 2001 to 2013, the World Bank invested $3.3 billion in early childhood development programs in poor countries. Kim said innovative policymaking and financial tools allowed the bank to help Peru cut its rate of child stunting in half to 14 percent in just eight years.

"Progress is possible – and it can happen quickly. But we must do even more,"he said.

Kim said the world set a target in 2012 to reduce stunting in children by 40 percent. But that would still leave 100 million children malnourished and undereducated. The bank and world leaders should pledge to end stunting for all children by 2030, he said.

"With partners like the Global Development and Poverty Initiative and the entire Stanford community, I'm full of hope that we can indeed be the first generation in human history to end extreme poverty and create a more just and prosperous world for everyone on the planet."

Read more here about another innovation to improve health in the developing world.

Medical researchers must work together across disciplines to provide better health care to those who need it most, according to panelists at Stanford Medicine’s Annual Population Health Sciences Colloquium.

The symposium, hosted by the Stanford Center for Population Health Sciences, brought together working groups from across the Stanford campus to showcase the latest findings in population health research.

“Population health science at Stanford is likely to make the most important contributions when we cross traditional intellectual expertise disciplines,” said Paul H. Wise, a core faculty member at the Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research (CHP/PCOR).

Many of the scholars at the daylong conference on Tuesday stressed that an interdisciplinary approach to health care is crucial to understanding and aiding underserved populations.

“To deal with life-course questions we need to create-life course observational windows,” said Mark Cullen, chief of the Division of General Medical Disciplines and director of the Stanford Center for Population Health Sciences.

Instead of trying to create an all-encompassing care plan for the human population as a whole, panelists demonstrated that studying the needs of particular groups, or smaller populations, can better serve individuals within populations that may not receive the best care.

Douglas K. Owens, director of CHP/PCOR, said the U.S.  Preventive Services Task Force, of which he is a member, has “often faced a real paucity of data trying to develop prediction guidelines for both the very young and the old.”

The Task Force, a panel of experts that makes recommendations for medical prevention services, is generally able to make guidelines for large populations like adults, but suggestions for specialized groups like children and the elderly are more challenging. Though Stanford researchers like Wise are working to improve care for particular sectors like children, more study is needed.

Several speakers at the conference said the underserved population of poor children could benefit from research targeted toward their population group.

“We don’t really understand the biology of the life-course, why things taking place in gestation and early life actually affect healthy aging and adult onset disease,” said Wise, adding, “We have a very poor understanding of how to translate this understanding into effective interventions for communities in need.”

Panelists agreed that big data can help them understand smaller, poorly served populations, such as young children in impoverished communities. By collecting large amounts of data from the general population, researchers will increase the amount of data available for more specific groups. This allows researchers to study these populations more closely and help create better outcomes.

Abby King, a professor of health research and policy and of medicine, and Jason Wang, director of the Center for Policy, Outcomes and Prevention (CPOP) and a CHP/PCOR core faculty member, believe life-course digital applications can provide individualized care while collecting data on a large-scale.

According to King, a life-course app, or a device to track health and provide care throughout one’s life, would grow with the user and help them through important developmental stages.

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Health-care techniques using mobile devices, known as mHealth, could be particularly useful in underserved populations. King notes that even low-income populations have cell phones, so using phones as health-care tools could help decrease the gap between higher- and lower-income populations.

“I think for us one of the major challenges of the century is to really close that health-disparities gap and mHealth can help.”

However, each app must be tailored to the user.

“There’s no reason to believe that an African-American 16-year-old is going to be motivated the same way as a 45-year-old white man,” said Wang. “You need to involve patients in the design of the app.” When the app fits the specific patient’s needs, they are more likely to use it regularly, and knowing the needs of their population helps determine their preferences.

As the world continues to become more connected, the panelists said that reaching across disciplines and incorporating technology may hold the key to effective health care in the 21^st century.

Ian Crozier, MD, is a walking laboratory for Ebola and a living testament to the damaging, long-term consequences of the disease, which are still very poorly understood.

As a volunteer physician with the World Health Organization in Sierra Leone, he worked furiously last fall to save patients in the heat of the Ebola crisis in West Africa. Then on Sept. 9, 2014, he became one of those patients himself and was airlifted to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, where his vital organs rapidly began shutting down.

During an Oct. 21 appearance at Stanford, Crozier recounted his astonishing recovery, during which he rebounded from a torturous period of being hooked to a ventilator and a kidney dialysis machine, experiencing abnormal heart rhythms, and developing severe encephalopathy that left him delirious and then unconscious for weeks, ultimately suffering several hemorrhagic strokes.

“If I you had told me on day one that I would develop multisystem organ failure and asked me to predict my chances of survival, I would have said my chances were zero,” he told more than 100 faculty, students and staff in a standing-room only talk at the School of Medicine. “They [the Emory caregivers] really changed the game…. I really think they were walking on the moon, but in a different kind of space suit.”

Dr. Ian Crozier, dressed in personal protective equipment, with Ebola-positive Sierra Leonean children. Schools remain closed in Sierra Leone and Liberia, two countries hit hard by the Ebola outbreak.

He was among the sickest of patients to survive the disease and continues to suffer from a variety of disturbing consequences, including eye problems, hearing loss with tinnitus, short-term memory loss, seizures and sleep dysregulation, he said. He wryly cautioned his audience that he was approaching his “hour of narcolepsy” as he started his late- afternoon talk.

Crozier’s talk was sponsored by the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford Immunology and the Stanford Medical Scientist Training Program.

It coincided with a plethora of recent news reports on the long-term consequences suffered by many Ebola survivors. The epidemic has killed more than 11,300 people and has not reached its end; in just the last few weeks, three new cases were reported.

Read his full story here.

In a recent piece in Stanford News, FSI Senior Fellow Larry Diamond expresses his thoughts on the ebbing of global democratic expansion, highlighting that not all countries have equal opportunities at achieving democracy and that democratic change should be approached multilaterally.

Stanford Assistant Professor of Medicine Marcella Alsan had always wondered why the mineral-rich African continent — with so many natural resources, diverse climates and arable land — remains so poor.

She launched into extensive research while working on her PhD in economics and has now come up with an intriguing theory: A pesky parasite prevented many precolonial Africans from adopting progressive agricultural methods, a phenomenon that still impacts parts of the continent today.

The tsetse fly has plagued Africa for centuries — having sent millions of people into the confusing stupor of sleeping sickness, while killing the cows and other livestock needed to plough their fields and feed their families.

Alsan writes in a paper published in The American Economic Review that the tsetse fly, which today is found only in Africa, drove precolonial Africans to use slaves instead of domesticated animals for agriculture. This limited their crop yields and the ability to transport goods.

“Communicable disease has often been explored as a cause of Africa’s underdevelopment,” writes Alsan, who is the only infectious-disease trained economist in the United States and a core faculty member of the Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research.

“Although the literature has investigated the role of human pathogens on economic performance, it is largely silent on the impact of veterinary disease,” she notes. “This is peculiar, given the role that livestock played in agriculture and as a form of transport throughout history.”

The economic impact caused by the parasite of the trypanosome vector is estimated to be as much as $4 billion a year. The Food and Agricultural Organization estimates 37 African countries are affected by the tsetse fly and that its trypanosomosis kills around 3 million livestock per year.

The World Health Organization reports that the sleeping sickness delivered by the tsetse bite in humans is hard to diagnose and treat. Some 60 million people were once at risk with an estimated 300,000 new cases each year.

Sleeping sickness causes headaches, fatigue and weight loss; confusion and personality disorders occur as the illness progresses. If left untreated, people typically die after several years of infection.

Fortunately, sustained control efforts have reduced the number of new cases, dropping below 10,000 annual cases annual for the first time in 50 years in 2009. This is in part to an eradication effort using radiation sterilization techniques adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

But the lingering economic impact from the tsetse has been monumental.

For her research, Alsan used geospatial-mapping software to mine data gathered by missionaries and anthropologists in the 1800s. She found that farming methods used in other developing regions of the world — such as the agricultural revolution in England — were not widely adopted in Africa.

“Livestock were really important for development in many places, such as Europe and North America and in some parts of Africa like the highlands of Ethiopia,” Alsan said in an interview. “They pulled plows and carried carts, their manure was used for fertilizer. They helped transport people and goods across land.”

She found that ethnic groups inhabiting tsetse-prone African regions were less likely to use domesticated animals to plow their fields, turning instead to the slash-and-burn technique still used in many parts of the continent today.

The same people were also less likely to be politically centralized, due to lack of transportation by livestock, and had a lower population density.

“These correlations are not found in the tropics outside of Africa, where the fly does not exist,” she writes. “The evidence suggests current economic performance is affected by the tsetse through the channel of precolonial political centralization.”

The FAO estimates that the tsetse fly infects nearly 10 million square kilometers in sub-Saharan Africa. Much of this large area is fertile but left uncultivated, a so-called green desert not used by humans and cattle. Most of the tsetse-infected countries are poor, debt-ridden and underdeveloped.

And this is what triggered Alsan’s interest in the tsetse fly: How its deadly bite has altered the socioeconomic impact of a continent.

“I am an infectious disease doctor, so part of my work is looking at neglected infectious diseases much like this one,” she said. “And it is

incredibly important to shine light on issues that are Africa-specific and therefore may not garner as much attention as those economic and medical issues that affect wealthier regions of the world.” 

Alsan, who sees patients at the Stanford University Medical Center and is an investigator at the VA Palo Alto Health Care Systems, is now launching work in India, Ghana and the San Francisco Bay Area. She hopes to better understand how socioeconomic and health disparities interact, and the important role that history plays in understanding those interactions.

In an op-ed for The New York Times, Larry Diamond presents a timeline of democracy charting the spread, regression, and sometimes even collapse, of democracy in the last 40 years.