Aging

Two decades ago, South Korea appeared on the path to greatly increased security. The Cold War was ending, fundamentally improving South Korea’s regional security environment. While retaining an alliance with the United States, South Korea was able to normalize relations with all of its neighbors except North Korea. It outpaced North Korea economically, technologically, politically, diplomatically, and militarily. Enjoying a dynamic democracy and firmly committed to the free market, South Korea seemed destined to grow only stronger vis-à-vis North Korea as the leading Korean state and to be well-positioned to preserve its security and integrity against much larger neighbors.

Today, however, South Korea unexpectedly faces a new constellation of significant threats to its security from both traditional and non-traditional sources.

  • North Korea has developed and tested a nuclear device and has continued to improve the capabilities of its long-range ballistic missiles. Despite economic collapse, North Korea still fields one of the world’s largest conventional militaries. The North Korean regime continues to monopolize information to the North Korean people, clouding the prospects for North-South reconciliation.
  • China’s rise presents not only opportunities but also challenges for South Korean security. Russia’s resurgence is a very recent phenomenon that has not been explored in depth. Despite converging attitudes and interests in many respects, historical grievances continue to limit security and diplomatic cooperation between South Korea and Japan.
  • The United States is focused on combating terrorism and managing the rise of China, while South Korean public opinion is divided about North Korea and the alliance with the United States.
  • Global developments—financial crises, economic recession, energy shortages, pollution, and climate change—are also testing South Korea. The ROK has one of the world’s lowest birth rates; the resulting dearth of young people and the aging of society will have major implications for South Korea’s long-term security.  

This closed workshop will examine the above issues from the viewpoint of enhancing South Korea’s security in coming decades.

This workshop is supported by the generous grant from Koret Foundation.

Bechtel Conference Center

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9744 (650) 723-6530
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Koret Fellow, 2008-09
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General (retired) Byung Kwan Kim is the inaugural Koret Fellow for 2008-09 academic year. He was the Deputy Commander of ROK-US Combined Forces Command and the Commander of Ground Component Command.

Koret Fellowship was established by the generous support from Koret Foundation to bring leading professionals in Asia and the United States to Stanford to study United States-Korea relations. The fellows will conduct their own research on the bilateral relationship, with an emphasis on contemporary relations with the broad aim of fostering greater understanding and closer ties between the two countries.

Byung Kwan Kim Koret Fellow in Korean Studies Program, APARC Panelist
Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall E301
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 724-8480 (650) 723-6530
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
Gi-Wook Shin_0.jpg PhD

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the founding director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC. He served as director of APARC for two decades (2005-2025). As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.

In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India to be published by Stanford University Press in the summer of 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.

Shin is also the author/editor of twenty-seven books and numerous articles. His books include The Four Talent Giants: National Strategies for Human Resource Development Across Japan, Australia, China, and India (2025)Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007);  and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals, including American Journal of SociologyWorld DevelopmentComparative Studies in Society and HistoryPolitical Science QuarterlyJournal of Asian StudiesComparative EducationInternational SociologyNations and NationalismPacific AffairsAsian SurveyJournal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.

Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations, historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia, and talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.

Before joining Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.

Selected Multimedia

Director of the Korea Program and the Taiwan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director of Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, APARC
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Gi-Wook Shin Director, APARC Moderator

No longer in residence.

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Associate Director of the Korea Program
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David Straub was named associate director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) on July 1, 2008. Prior to that he was a 2007–08 Pantech Fellow at the Center. Straub is the author of the book, Anti-Americanism in Democratizing South Korea, published in 2015.

An educator and commentator on current Northeast Asian affairs, Straub retired in 2006 from his role as a U.S. Department of State senior foreign service officer after a 30-year career focused on Northeast Asian affairs. He worked over 12 years on Korean affairs, first arriving in Seoul in 1979.

Straub served as head of the political section at the U.S. embassy in Seoul from 1999 to 2002 during popular protests against the United States, and he played a key working-level role in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program as the State Department's Korea country desk director from 2002 to 2004. He also served eight years at the U.S. embassy in Japan. His final assignment was as the State Department's Japan country desk director from 2004 to 2006, when he was co-leader of the U.S. delegation to talks with Japan on the realignment of the U.S.-Japan alliance and of U.S. military bases in Japan.

After leaving the Department of State, Straub taught U.S.-Korean relations at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in the fall of 2006 and at the Graduate School of International Studies of Seoul National University in spring 2007. He has published a number of papers on U.S.-Korean relations. His foreign languages are Korean, Japanese, and German.

David Straub Associate Director, Korean Studies Program, APARC Panelist

Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-6445 (650) 723-6530
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Ben_Self.JPG MA

Ben Self is the inaugural Takahashi Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Prior to joining the Center in September 2008, Self was at the Henry L. Stimson Center as a Senior Associate working on Japanese security policy beginning in 1998. While at the Stimson Center, he directed projects on Japan-China relations, fostering security cooperation between the U.S.-Japan Alliance and the PRC, Japan’s Nuclear Option, and Confidence-Building Measures. Self has also carried out research and writing in areas such as nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, ballistic missile defense, Taiwan’s security, Northeast Asian security dynamics, the domestic politics of Japanese defense policy, and Japan’s global security role. 

From 2003 until 2008, Ben was living in Africa—in Malawi and Tanzania—and is now studying the role of Japan in Africa, including in humanitarian relief, economic development, conflict prevention, and resource extraction. 

Self earned his undergraduate degree in Political Science at Stanford in 1988, and an M.A. in Japan Studies and International Economics from Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. While there, he was a Reischauer Center Summer Intern at the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) in Tokyo. He later worked in the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and was a Visiting Research Fellow at Keio University on a Fulbright grant from 1996 until 1998.

Takahashi Fellow in Japanese Studies
Benjamin Self Takahashi Fellow in Japanese Studies,APARC Panelist

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-2703 (650) 723-6530
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Pantech Fellow, 2008-09
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Donald W. Keyser retired from the U.S. Department of State in September 2004 after a 32-year career.  He had been a member of the Senior Foreign Service since 1990, and held Washington-based ambassadorial-level assignments 1998-2004.  Throughout his career he focused on U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and the Korean Peninsula. Fluent in Chinese and professionally conversant in Japanese, Russian and French, he served three tours at the American Embassy in Beijing, two tours at the American Embassy in Tokyo, and almost a dozen years in relevant domestic assignments.  In the course of his career, Keyser logged extensive domestic and foreign experience in senior management operations, conflict resolution, intelligence operations and analysis, and law enforcement programs and operations.  A Russian language major in college and a Soviet/Russian area studies specialist through M.A. work, Keyser served 1998-99 as Special Negotiator and Ambassador for Regional Conflicts in the Former USSR.   He sought to develop policy initiatives and strategies to resolve three principal conflicts, leading the U.S. delegation in negotiations with four national leaders and three separatist leaders in the Caucasus region.

Keyser earned his B.A. degree, Summa Cum Laude, with a dual major in Political Science and Russian Area Studies, from the University of Maryland.  He pursued graduate studies at The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., from 1965-67 (Russian area and language focus) and 1970-72 (Chinese area and language focus).   He attended the National War College, Fort McNair, Washington (1988-89), earning a certificate equivalent to an M.S., Military Science; and the National Defense University Capstone Program (summer 1995) for flag-rank military officers and civilians.

Don Keyser Pantech Fellow in Korean Studies Program, APARC Panelist

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-6530
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Visiting Scholar, 2008-09
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Dr. Jong Seok Lee was the Minister of Unification, and the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Security Council in Korea. He is currently a Senior Fellow at Sejong Institute in Korea. He has published books on North Korea-China relations, contemporary North Korea, and Korea unification.

Jong Seok Lee Visiting Scholar, APARC Panelist
Alexandre Y. Mansourov The National Committee on North Korea Panelist
Jae Ho Chung Professor, Department of International Studies, Seoul National University Panelist
Kyung-Tae Lee President, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Panelist
Ji-Chul Ryu Senior Fellow, Korea Energy Economics Institute Panelist
Seong-Ho Shin Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University Panelist

Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Lecturer in International Policy at the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy
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Daniel C. Sneider is a lecturer in international policy at Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy and a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford. His own research is focused on current U.S. foreign and national security policy in Asia and on the foreign policy of Japan and Korea.  Since 2017, he has been based partly in Tokyo as a Visiting Researcher at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, where he is working on a diplomatic history of the creation and management of the U.S. security alliances with Japan and South Korea during the Cold War. Sneider contributes regularly to the leading Japanese publication Toyo Keizai as well as to the Nelson Report on Asia policy issues.

Sneider is the former Associate Director for Research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford. At Shorenstein APARC, Sneider directed the center’s Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, a comparative study of the formation of wartime historical memory in East Asia. He is the co-author of a book on wartime memory and elite opinion, Divergent Memories, from Stanford University Press. He is the co-editor, with Dr. Gi-Wook Shin, of Divided Memories: History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia, from Routledge and of Confronting Memories of World War II: European and Asian Legacies, from University of Washington Press.

Sneider was named a National Asia Research Fellow by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the National Bureau of Asian Research in 2010. He is the co-editor of Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia, Shorenstein APARC, distributed by Brookings Institution Press, 2007; of First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier, 2009; as well as of Does South Asia Exist?: Prospects for Regional Integration, 2010. Sneider’s path-breaking study “The New Asianism: Japanese Foreign Policy under the Democratic Party of Japan” appeared in the July 2011 issue of Asia Policy. He has also contributed to other volumes, including “Strategic Abandonment: Alliance Relations in Northeast Asia in the Post-Iraq Era” in Towards Sustainable Economic and Security Relations in East Asia: U.S. and ROK Policy Options, Korea Economic Institute, 2008; “The History and Meaning of Denuclearization,” in William H. Overholt, editor, North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War?, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, 2019; and “Evolution or new Doctrine? Japanese security policy in the era of collective self-defense,” in James D.J. Brown and Jeff Kingston, eds, Japan’s Foreign Relations in Asia, Routledge, December 2017.

Sneider’s writings have appeared in many publications, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, Slate, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, National Review, the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Oriental Economist, Newsweek, Time, the International Herald Tribune, the Financial Times, and Yale Global. He is frequently cited in such publications.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Sneider was a long-time foreign correspondent. His twice-weekly column for the San Jose Mercury News looking at international issues and national security from a West Coast perspective was syndicated nationally on the Knight Ridder Tribune wire service. Previously, Sneider served as national/foreign editor of the Mercury News. From 1990 to 1994, he was the Moscow bureau chief of the Christian Science Monitor, covering the end of Soviet Communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1985 to 1990, he was Tokyo correspondent for the Monitor, covering Japan and Korea. Prior to that he was a correspondent in India, covering South and Southeast Asia. He also wrote widely on defense issues, including as a contributor and correspondent for Defense News, the national defense weekly.

Sneider has a BA in East Asian history from Columbia University and an MPA from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Daniel C. Sneider Associate Director of Research, APARC Panelist
Michael H. Armacost Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, APARC Commentator

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

Selected Multimedia

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Thomas Fingar Payne Distinguished Lecturer, FSI Keynote Speaker
Charles L. "Jack" Pritchard President, Korea Economics Institute, Washington D.C. Commentator
T. J. Pempel Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley Commentator
Conferences
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Korea introduced three major health-care reforms: in financing (1999), pharmaceuticals (2000), and provider payment (2001). In these three reforms, new government policies merged more than 350 health insurance societies into a single payer, separated drug prescribing by physicians from dispensing by pharmacists, and attempted to introduce a new prospective payment system. The change of government, the president’s keen interest in health policy, and democratization in public policy process toward a more pluralist context opened a policy window for reform. Civic groups played an active role in the policy process by shaping the proposals for reform —a major change from the previous policy process that was dominated by government bureaucrats. However, more pluralistic policy process also allowed key interest groups to intervene at critical points in implementation (sometimes in support, sometimes in opposition), with smaller political costs than previously.

Strong support by the rural population and labor unions contributed to the financing reform. In the pharmaceutical reform, which was a big threat to physician income, the president and civic groups succeeded in quickly setting the reform agenda; the medical profession was unable to block the adoption of the reform but their strikes influenced the content of the reform during implementation. Physician strikes also helped them block the implementation of the payment reform. Future reform efforts in Korea will need to consider the political management of vested interest groups and the design of strategies for both scope and sequencing of policy reforms.

Soonman Kwon is Professor of Health Economics and Policy, and Director of the BK (Brain Korea) Center for Aging and Health Policy in Seoul National University, South Korea. After he received his Ph.D. from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, he was assistant professor of public policy at the University of Southern California in 1993-96. Prof. Kwon has held visiting positions at Harvard School of Public Health (Fulbright Scholar and Tekemi Fellow), London School of Economics (Chevening Scholar), Univ. of Trier of Germany (DAAD Scholar), and Univ of Toronto. He is on the editorial boards of Social Science and Medicine (Elsevier), Health Economics Policy and Law (Cambridge U Press), and Health Systems in Transition (HiT, European Observatory). He has occasionally worked as a short-term consultant of WHO, ILO, and GTZ (German Technical Cooperation) on health financing and policy in China, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam. He has also been a consultant of Korean government for the evaluation of its development aid programs in North Korea, Ecuador, Fiji, Mexico and Peru.

Philippines Conference Room

Soonman Kwon Professor Speaker Seoul National University
Seminars
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Karen Eggleston
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The Asia Health Policy Program has launched a new working paper series on health and demographic change in Asia with a working paper on informal caregiving for the elderly in South Korea. Authored by Young Kyung Do, the inaugural postdoctoral fellow in comparative health policy with the Asia Health Policy Program, the first working paper provides evidence to inform elderly long-term care policy in South Korea.

As Dr. Do notes in the abstract of his paper, informal care is embedded in traditional culture perpetuating family-centered elderly care and is still viewed as a family or moral issue rather than a social and policy issue in South Korea. Using newly available microdata from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, the study investigates the effect of informal caregiving on labor market outcomes in South Korea. It fills a gap in the international literature by providing results from an Asian country. Empirical analyses address various methodological issues by investigating gender differences, by examining both extensive and intensive labor market adjustments with two definitions of labor force participation, by employing different functional forms of care intensity, and by accounting for the potential endogeneity of informal care as well as intergenerational co-residence. Robust findings suggest negative effects of informal caregiving on labor market outcomes among women, but not among men. Compared with otherwise similar non-caregivers, female intensive caregivers who provide at least 10 hours of care per week are at an increased risk of being out of the labor force by 15.2 percentage points. When examining the probability of employment in the formal sector only, the effect magnitude is smaller. Among employed women, more intensive caregivers receive lower hourly wages by 1.65K Korean Won than otherwise similar non-caregivers. Informal care is already an important economic issue in South Korea even though aging is still at an early stage.

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Karen Eggleston
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Demographic change and long-term care in Japan, chronic non-communicable disease in China, national health insurance in South Korea, TB control in North Korea, pharmaceutical policy in the region and global safety in drug supply chains -- these are some of the topics explored in a new Stanford course: East Asian Studies 117 and 217,  "%course1%." Taught in fall 2008 by Karen Eggleston, Director of the Asia Health Policy Program, the course has enrolled students not only of East Asian studies but also other undergraduate majors as well as graduate students from the School of Education, School of Medicine, and Graduate School of Business.

 

The course discusses population health and healthcare systems in contemporary China, Japan, and Korea (north and south). Using primarily the lens of social science, especially health economics, participants analyze recent developments in East Asian health policy. In addition to seminar discussions, students engage in active exploration of selected topics outside the classroom, culminating in individual research papers and group projects that present findings in creative ways. For example, several students prepared an overview of health and healthcare in North Korea; three MBA students prepared a proposal for a healthcare venture in China (+PPT+ 1.2MB); and others attended related colloquia, interviewed researchers, and prepared summaries for public posting, such as the article on gender imbalance in China.

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Fast Forward: Uncertainties, Risks and Opportunities of Rapid Aging in China, Japan, and Korea will be an innovative, invitation-only scenario planning exercise. Our goal is to develop a broader understanding of how population aging could affect the social, cultural, economic, and security futures of Asia over the next ten to twenty years. We’ve invited a select group of leaders from business, government, and academia with an interest in various aspects of Asia’s growth to identify key uncertainties and assess possible outcomes. This highly interactive session will be moderated by the Global Business Network, the world’s leading scenario consultancy.

This scenario planning workshop is part of a two-day conference at Stanford, Aging Asia: Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and Korea. The first day, Aging in Asia Today: What the Experts Know, will feature keynote presentations and academic panels on the impacts of rapid aging in these countries, focused on four topics: economic growth, social insurance programs, long-term care, and health care.

Bechtel Conference Center

Conferences
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This conference, sponsored by the Asia Health Policy Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Global Aging Program of Stanford Center on Longevity, explored the impact of rapid aging on economic growth, labor markets, social insurance financing, long term care, and health care in China, Japan, and Korea.

Bechtel Conference Center

Michael H. Armacost Speaker
David Bloom Speaker Harvard University
Judith Banister Speaker The Conference Board
Naoki Ikegami Speaker Keio University
Soonman Kwon Speaker Seoul National University
Shripad Tuljapurkar Speaker Stanford University

428 Herrin Labs
Department of Biological Sciences
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5020

(650) 725-7727 (650) 725-7745
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Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences
Director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies
marcus-feldman_profilephoto.jpeg MS, PhD

Marcus Feldman is the Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences and director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies at Stanford University. He uses applied mathematics and computer modeling to simulate and analyze the process of evolution. His specific areas of research include the evolution of complex genetic systems that can undergo both natural selection and recombination, and the evolution of learning as one interface between modern methods in artificial intelligence and models of biological processes, including communication. He also studies the evolution of modern humans using models for the dynamics of molecular polymorphisms, especially DNA variants. He helped develop the quantitative theory of cultural evolution, which he applies to issues in human behavior, and also the theory of niche construction, which has wide applications in ecology and evolutionary analysis. He also has a large research program on demographic issues related to the gender ratio in China.

Feldman is a trustee and member of the science steering committee of the Santa Fe Institute. He is managing editor of Theoretical Population Biology and associate editor of the journals Genetics; Human Genomics; Complexity; the Annals of Human Genetics; and the Annals of Human Biology. He is a former editor of The American Naturalist. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the California Academy of Science. His work received the "Paper of the Year 2003" award in all of biomedical science from The Lancet. He has written more than 335 scientific papers and four books on evolution, ecology, and mathematical biology. He received a BSc in mathematics and statistics from the University of Western Australia, an MSc in mathematics from Monash University (Australia), and a PhD in mathematical biology from Stanford. He has been a member of the Stanford faculty since 1971.

Stanford Health Policy Associate
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Marcus W. Feldman Speaker Stanford University
Naohiro Ogawa Speaker Nihon University
Andrew Mason Speaker University of Hawaii
Shanlian Hu Speaker Fudan University
Edward Norton Speaker University of Michigan
Shuzhuo Li Speaker Xi'an Jiaotong University
Maria Porter Speaker University of Chicago
Meng Kin Lim Speaker National University of Singapore National University of Singapore
Kai Hong Phua Kai Hong Phua Speaker National University of Singapore National University of Singapore
John C. Campbell Speaker University of Michigan Emeritus
Byongho Tchoe Speaker Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs
Young Kyung Do Speaker Asia Health Policy Program
Jian Wang Speaker Shandong University
Dolores Gallagher-Thompson Speaker Stanford School of Medicine
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Rose McDermott is a Professor of Political Science at Brown University.  She is currently a fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University.  She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and an M.A. in Experimental Social Psychology, both from Stanford University. She held a National Institute on Drug Abuse Post Doctoral Fellowship in Substance Abuse Treatment Outcome Research at the San Francisco VA through the University of San Francisco Psychiatry Department.  Professor McDermott has also held fellowships at the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies and the Women and Public Policy Program, both at Harvard University. Professor McDermott's main area of research concerns political psychology in international relations. She is the author of Risk Taking in International Relations: Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy (University of Michigan Press, 1998), Political Psychology in International Relations (University of Michigan Press, 2004), and Presidential Illness, Leadership and Decision Making (Cambridge University Press, 2007). She is co-editor of Measuring Identity: A Guide for Social Science Research, with Rawi Abdelal, Yoshiko Herrera, and Alastair Iain Johnson (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming).

She has written numerous articles and book chapters on experimentation, the impact of emotion on decision making, social identity, and evolutionary and neuroscientific models of political science.  She is currently involved in a series of projects investigating the endogenous sources of aggression, and a book project on pandemic disease.

Herbert Abrams is a professor of radiology, emeritus, at the Stanford School of Medicine and a member-in-residence at CISAC, where he directs the Project on Disabled Leadership. He was Professor and Director of Diagnostic Radiology at Stanford from 1960 to 1967, and was then appointed and served as Philip H. Cook Professor and Chairman of Radiology at Harvard University from 1967 to 1985. He returned to Stanford in 1985 as Professor of Radiology in order to spend most of his time in research in CISAC. Dr. Abrams' present focus is on presidential disability and its potential impact on decision making.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Rose McDermott Visiting Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University; Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa Barbara Speaker
Herbert Abrams Professor of Radiology, Emeritus and CISAC Member-in-Residence Commentator
Seminars

Decisions are made for two general purposes. A choice is determined either to obtain a desired outcome or to gather new information about other (perhaps more desirable) novel actions. These two motivations are generally referred to as exploitation and exploration, respectively. When confronted with a novel environment, the strategy employed to balance these two demands has tremendous consequence on performance. This study aims to understand how exploration-exploitation strategies change across the life span.

Most Americans fail to save enough money to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living after they retire-presumably because they steeply discount the value of future outcomes relative to present ones. To explain the steepness of such discounting, we note past research suggesting that people often think of their future selves as though they are other people rather than extensions of themselves in the present.

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On October 2, 2008, Dr. Marcus Feldman of Stanford's Biology department delivered the first colloquium in the series on "The Implications of Demographic Change in China," co-sponsored by the Asia Health Policy Program and the Stanford China Program. Dr. Feldman discussed the sex-ratio imbalance and gender studies in China.

As Dr. Feldman noted, the total fertility rate in China has dropped dramatically in recent years, due in large part to the Chinese government's One Child Policy, which was introduced in 1979. In the early 1970s, the fertility rate averaged almost 6 births per woman, dropping to about 1.6 after the year 2000. China's sex ratio of males to females at birth (SRB), meanwhile, has risen. In 1975, the SRB was about 106 male births per 100 female births, and in 2005 had climbed to over 120 male births per 100 female births. When parity (birth order) is taken into account, the ratio becomes even more startling; for the first birth, the ratio is close to even (about 108 in the year 2005), but exceeded 145 in 2005 for the second birth and even higher for the third birth (almost163 in 2005). Research indicates that the imbalanced SRB is largely concentrated in the lower coastal regions of mainland China, where the population is predominantly Han. Shaanxi, Anhui and Jiangxi Province have the highest ratio of male to female births.

Evidence of gender imbalance is not merely limited to the ratio at birth; high ratios of male to female children are seen through ages 0-4, indicating that son preference affects not only which children survive birth, but also the survival rate of females in early childhood. In fact, research indicates that while excess girl child mortality (EGCM) has decreased for infants less than a year old in the period between 1973 and 2000, it has become increasingly pronounced for children between the ages of 0-4 and 5-9, with EGCM rates increasing every year.

Two Studies

Two studies were carried out in 1997 and 2000 by the Institute for Population and Development Studies of Xi'an Jiaotong University to investigate the causes of gender imbalance. The 1997 study focused on the cultural transmission of son preference, and the 2000 study on marriage form and old age support.

Three counties were chosen as sites, and the studies were a combination of surveys, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The first county, Sanyuan () in Shaanxi province, is a medium-developed region whose principal agricultural product is wheat. Fertility is high in Sanyuan, which is characterized by the dominance of virilocal marriage (in which the bride joins the family of her husband) and strict patrilineal family systems. The second county, Lueyang () in Shaanxi province is an underdeveloped mountainous region in which the patrilineal family system is more relaxed, fertility is lower than in Sanyuan, and there are diversified forms of marriage. The third site, Songzi () in Hubei province, is a well-developed rice- and cotton-producing plains region, with low fertility, relaxed family systems and diversified marriage. The results of household surveys showed a strong preference among parents in both Sanyuan and Lueyang to live with their sons in old age, which was not surprising, but a surprising result was found when parents were asked about the primary benefits of having a son. The most-reported reason was for carrying on the family name, which shows that traditional (Confucian) values played a bigger role in son preference than practical considerations such as labor or old age support. Overall, Lueyang was shown to have a much higher rate for transmitting no son-preference than Sanyuan, with older women slightly more likely to transmit no son-preference.

The marriage study found that rates of uxorilocal marriage (in which the groom joins the family of his wife) have, for the most part, been dropping in both Lueyang and Songzi since the 1970's. In Sanyuan, where uxorilocal marriage has been traditionally uncommon, the rates have remained steady at around 5 percent since the 1950's. The researchers calculated children's odds ratios of providing financial help to parents based on marriage form, and found the net ratios highest for women in virilocal marriages and sons in uxorilocal marriages.

Mechanisms of gender imbalance

There are several likely factors for the imbalanced sex ratio at birth in China. Underreporting of female births, infanticide, and sex-selective abortion (post-pre-natal gender testing) all contribute to this syndrome. Furthermore, poor nutritional and medical care for girls in their younger years can further skew the gender balance by exacerbating excess female child mortality. At the basic source of this issue, however, remains a fundamental gender bias that dates back historically and philosophically through Confucian culture and traditional patriarchal structures.

If the SRB, EFCM, TFR (total fertility rate) were all to remain at their early 2000s levels, then by 2030 the total population of China would be 84.2% of what would normally be expected at the current fertility rate (potentially causing economic welfare issues for the elderly, along with a work force deficiency). Moreover, there would be an excess in the male population of 20-21% (relative to females), essentially making it mathematically impossible for this proportion of the male population to marry. Needless to say, the possibility of such a severe "marriage squeeze", and the general top-heavy ratio of aging population to young working population are very problematic prospects for China's population and for the government's endeavors to promote both economic growth and social stability.

Examples of government efforts

The government is considering several policy options to try to avert this potential crisis. Stronger punishments were suggested at the 2008 National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) for non-medical sex identification and sex-selection abortions (both of which can be obtained for relatively cheap rates within the country, despite being illegal). More proactively, an experimental program called "Care For Girls" was implemented in 2000 in Chaohu (a city in Anhui province). This program includes: financial help for 1- and 2-daughter families; sponsoring of girls' educational fees and increased pensions to families with daughters; and the promotion of uxorilocal marital structures. Since the introduction of the program, the local SRB went from 125 in 1999 to 114 in 2002. In response to this apparent success, the government expanded the "Care For Girls" program to 24 counties with high SRB rates in 2003-2004, and saw the average SRB in those counties drop from 133.8 in 2000 to 119.6 in 2005. Stipulation and initiation of a national "Care For Girls" campaign occurred in January 2006 - July 2006, with the goal of bringing the national SRB average to normal levels within 15 years. In January 2008, the government expanded on this effort by launching the "Care For Girls Youth Volunteer Action", beginning with more than 1000 students (mostly at the university level) directed at engaging in promotional activities and data collection (under the Chinese Communist Youth League). These policies are part of a comprehensive aspiration on the part of the PRC government towards the "construction of a new reproductive culture."

Son preference among migrant workers in Shenzhen

With the Chinese economic reform of the early 1980s, millions of laborers have been migrating from rural to urban areas. After migration, rural-urban laborers have to familiarize themselves with the rules and customs of their new locations, rebuilding their social networks in the process of adapting to their new occupations and habitation. But how do individual characteristics (i.e. gender, education level and the time of residency), restructured social networks, and the experiences of migration influence migrants' attitudes and behaviors regarding son preference? These questions were examined in a 2005 study conducted in Shenzhen.

Shenzhen is the first Special Economic Zone in China to implement economic reform and has since developed from a small fishing village into a modern coastal city. According to the 2000 Population Census, the total population of Shenzhen is 7,008,800, and the ratio of migrants to permanent urban residents is 4.77:1.

The Shenzhen study seemed to indicate initially that only a small minority of migrants (7% of total respondents) expressed a strong attitude towards son preference. However, the actual childbearing behavior of rural-urban migrants was remarkably different compared to their reported attitudes. The sex ratio of migrant children is as high as 163 male births per 100 female births, and the later in the birth order, the higher the sex ratio for the child, i.e., the sex ratio is 1.52 for the first birth and rises steeply to 1.80 for the second birth, peaking at 1.94 for the third and above birth. Thus the results suggest that migrants' childbearing behaviors actually suggest a strong son preference.

The Shenzhen study also found that three major determinants, namely social networks, migration history, and individual factors, all have significant effects on son preference among rural-urban migrants.

First, weak ties (formed by friends, bosses, and fellow workers) in social networks affect the attitude of son preference among rural-urban migrants. That is, the risk of having son-preference tends to decrease when the overall influence of network members is positive (without son preference). Moreover, increasing social contacts with network members will reduce the dependence upon strong ties (formed by family members and kin) and thus decrease the traditional culture of "rearing a son to support parents in their old age" and familial pressures to have more children.

Second, the duraction of residency in an urban area has a significant effect on the attitude of son preference among rural-urban migrations. The longer the migrants live in an urban area, the more likely that their attitudes of son-preference will adapt to urban reproductive norms. For example, the data indicated that ratio of male and female birth is more balanced among those living in urban areas for 8 years or longer. However, rural-urban migrants still exhibit a strong overall behavior of son preference. In other words, the change in childbearing behavior in terms of birth patterns still lags far behind the apparent change of attitudes.

Age and education are identified as factors affecting son preference among rural-urban migrants. For instance, an increase in age relative to initial migration will often decrease the imbalance in the sex ratio.

An additional study on rural-urban migrants examined the relationship between the gender of married migrants and their provision of financial support to parents and parents-in-law post-migration. The results showed, in fact, that female migrants are more likely to give financial support to their parents-in-law after migration.

Even today, the patrilineal conception of support for elderly family members is still very prevalent in rural China. Sons are expected to provide fundamental support to their parents, while daughters tend to provide supplementary and emotional support. This traditional old-age support pattern of reliance on sons can often intensify the syndrome of son bias among rural or traditional Chinese. However, the results here proved that if aging parents are more likely to receive sustenance from married daughters compared to married sons, the dominant son-preference in rural China could be logically undercut and eventually the traditional patrilineal conception of old-age support, and resulting gender bias, could be ameliorated and even eliminated.

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