In
recent years, world attention has been drawn to the acquisition by developing
countries of delivery systems for nuclear weapons as distinct from the nuclear warheads
themselves. In particular, concerns have been raised about the
spread
of ballistic-missile systems and technologies to areas such as theMiddle East, in
which there are strong regional tensions.
The
extensive use of ballistic missiles in the "war of the cities"
in 1988
during the Iran-Iraq War and the use of Scud missiles by Iraq against
Israel and Saudi Arabia during Desert Storm highlighted the rapid proliferation
of these weapons, and served as a premonition of worse
things to come if and when developing states
deploy ballistic missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction. The ballistic missiles of concern have ranges
of a hundred to a few thousand kilometers (km) and can carry payloads of up to
one or two thousand kilograms (kg). These systems are becoming increasingly
prominent
in Third World arsenals, and are perceived as threatening
stability
and regional military balances.
This study examines
the impact of ballistic-missile proliferation, focusing on sixteen regional states
which have or soon could have ballistic-missile capabilities. Specifically, the study: (1) evaluates the
military effectlveness of ballistic
missiles in comparison with advanced strike aircraft, (2) identifies trends in
the supply of and demand for ballistic missiles, (3) identifies key
technologies and systems whose control is essential to a successful missile
non-proliferation regime, (4) reviews the relevancy
and
effectiveness of present control mechanisms including the MlssiIe
Technology Control
Regime (MTCR), and (5) offers policy options for strengthening controls on the
acquisition by developing states of longer-range ground strike delivery
systems, including ballistic missiles and advanced combat aircraft.