This chapter, by PESD fellow Thomas Heller and PESD affiliate P.R. Shukla, was published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change in 2003 as part of their "Beyond Kyoto" series.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a dominate influence on rice output and markets in Southeast Asia. This paper measures ENSO effects on rice production in Indonesia-nationally and regionally-and on world rice prices using the August sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) as the primary gauge of climate variability. Our estimates show that for each degree (C) change in the August SSTA, there is a 1,318 thousand metric ton effect on paddy production in Indonesia and a $23/metric ton change in the world rice price. Ninety percent of the inter-annual changes in paddy production caused by SSTA variations take place within twelve provinces, with Java and South Sulewesi bearing by far the greatest impact. New data and models now combine to provide Indonesia with opportunities for understanding the effects of ENSO events on agriculture, for forming an early consensus on likely ENSO effects for the coming year, and for using forecasts in ways that permit agencies and individuals to do a more credible job of mitigating negative climate effects on food security. Among other suggestions, we propose that an "ENSO Summit" be held each year, sometime between September 15-30, to analyze the likely food-security implications arising from upcoming climate events.

Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The "Go West" policy was introduced in 1999.

In Chengdu, as with many other Chinese cities, a complex interplay of government and private, local, national, and increasingly transnational forces have influenced urban growth. Responding to changes in local, national, and international economic drivers, Chengdu is redefining its economic roles and functions, with direct consequences for the city's physical form. In turn, the spatial manifestation of urban development has important implications for Chengdu's economic potential, social and political stability, and environmental and ecological functioning. Extensive, as opposed to compact, urban form requires massive infrastructure investments, increases energy demand, and has broad environmental impacts, including local and regional climate change, loss of wildlife habitat and biodiversity, and increases in pressures on water resources. From the provision of clean drinking water to the construction of transportation and waste water networks, every aspect of the urbanization process has significant environmental implications.

In recent years, the professional punditry has lofted hydrogen into the firmament of technological wonders. A "hydrogen revolution" is now the most often touted remedy to threats to energy security and the specter of climate change and other environmental harms caused by burning fossil fuels the old fashioned way-combustion. Even as a few doubters question the economics and wisdom of this revolution, today's stewards of conventional wisdom question not whether the hydrogen revolution will occur but, rather, the exact timing and sequence of events what will propel modern society to that shining hydrogenous city on the hill.

It is not the price of the energy carrier that will be the main factor in the hydrogen revolution because the cost of creating hydrogen is already in the noise of all the major energy carriers. Rather, the key question is what will make users switch from today's carriers-refined petroleum and electricity-to something new? The incumbents are locked in to the current technological suite, and lock-in effects can be powerful deterrents to new competitors. We address this question-the prospects for technological change by users-from three perspectives. First, we examine the rates of change that are typically observed in technological systems. There has been much ambiguity in the discussion of a hydrogen revolution about how rapidly the revolution could unfold. That ambiguity, in turn, has led to wildly unrealistic expectations and perhaps also implausible research and development strategies. Second, we examine the responses by competitors-notably petroleum and electricity-to a new entrant that tries to steal their market. Past technological transformations have seen ugly replies by the incumbent. Will those replies be fatal to the upstart hydrogen? Third, we examine the crucial role of niche markets. New technologies rarely arise de novo in the mass market. Rather, they are improved and tailored in niche markets, from which they gain a foothold for broader diffusion. What are the possible niche markets for hydrogen, and how might those markets be constructed and protected?

Elderly Floridians use much more medical care and have much lower mortality rates than do their peers in other regions of the country. After demographic and other variables are controlled for, the differential between Florida and the rest of the United States is 25 percent for utilization and 10 percent for mortality among whites ages 65-84. This paper summarizes the facts about Floridian exceptionalism and reviews various possible explanations: physician inducement of utilization, differences in preferences, selective migration into and out of the state, climate, and social interactions, among others. Readers are invited to suggest their own explanations and their policy recommendations, if any.

We compared results of safety climate survey questions from health care respondents with those from naval aviation, a high-reliability organization. Separate surveys containing a subset of 23 similar questions were conducted among employees from 15 hospitals and from naval aviators from 226 squadrons. For each question a "problematic response" was defined that suggested an absence of a safety climate. Overall, the problematic response rate was 5.6% for naval aviators versus 17.5% for hospital personnel (p0.0001). The problematic response was 20.9% in high-hazard domains such as emergency departments and operating room. Problematic response among hospital workers was up to 12 times greater than that among aviators on certain questions.

CONCLUSION: Although further research on safety climate in health care is warranted, hospitals may need to make substantial changes to achieve a safety climate consistent with the status of high-reliability organizations.