Climate
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From the outset, the transatlantic relationship has been more than a mere marriage of convenience. It encompasses a community of states, which are committed to common values, ideals and interests. Europe and North America can look back on a common cultural and intellectual history and they are bound together by a cultural affinity.

Transatlantic relations have benefited from the conscious decision made by the US not to withdraw from Europe in 1945, as it had done after the end of the First World War but, rather, to maintain a long-term presence. This injected an element of stability into Western Europe, which made it possible to tackle the European integration project.

Naturally, there are also conflicts of interests and areas of friction within this community of values. The transatlantic community has never been a perfect community of interests. We are each other's cousins, not identical twins.

Current contentious issues are not limited to the military action by the United States against the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Europe and the U.S. also have divergent viewpoints on issues such as climate protection, the death penalty or relations with international organizations. However, leading politicians on both sides of the Atlantic know that it is in everyone's interest to deal responsibly with such differences.

The visit by President Bush to Brussels and to Germany at the start to his second term as American president has helped to refocus the transatlantic relationship.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Bernd Westphal Consul General Consulate General of Germany in San Francisco
Seminars

Jerry Yang & Akiko Yamazaki Environment & Energy Bldg.
473 Via Ortega, Room 221
Stanford, CA 94305
Phone: 650.736.4352

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Perry L. McCarty Director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.; Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences; FSI Senior Fellow, by courtesy
chris_field.png PhD

Chris Field is the Perry L. McCarty Director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

His research focuses on climate change, ranging from work on improving climate models, to prospects for renewable energy systems, to community organizations that can minimize the risk of a tragedy of the commons.

Field has been deeply involved with national and international scale efforts to advance science and assessment related to global ecology and climate change. He served as co-chair of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 2008-2015, where he led the effort on the IPCC Special Report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (2012) and the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.

Field assumed leadership of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment in September 2016. His other appointments at Stanford University include serving as the Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences; Professor of Earth System Science in the School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences; and Senior Fellow with the Precourt Institute for Energy. Prior to his appointment as Woods' Perry L. McCarty Director, Field served as director of the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, which he founded in 2002. Field's tenure at the Carnegie Institution dates back to 1984.

His widely cited work has earned many recognitions, including election to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Max Planck Research Award, the American Geophysical Union’s Roger Revelle Medal and the Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Science Communication. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the Ecological Society of America.

Field holds a bachelor’s degree in biology from Harvard College and earned his Ph.D. in biology from Stanford in 1981.

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Can religion be compatible with liberal democracy? World Religions and Democracy brings together insights from renowned scholars and world leaders in a provocative and timely discussion of religions' role in the success or failure of democracy. An essay by Alfred Stepan outlines the concept of "twin tolerations" and differentiation, and creates a template that can be applied to all of the religion-democracy relationships observed and analyzed throughout the volume. "Twin tolerations" means that there is a clear distinction and a mutual respect between political authorities and religious leaders and bodies. When true differentiation is accomplished, the religious sector enjoys freedom of activity and the ability to peacefully influence its members but does not wield direct political power. A country's ability to implement the principle of differentiation directly affects the successful development of democracy.

Part two focuses on eastern religions -- Confucianism, Hinduism, and Buddhism -- and includes contributions from Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and His Holiness the Dalai Lama. The third part addresses democracy in relationship to Judaism and the three branches of Christianity -- Catholicism, Protestantism, and Eastern Orthodoxy. Sociologist Peter Berger offers a global perspective of Christianity and democracy.

The volume's final section discusses what is perhaps the most challenging example of the struggling relationship between religion and democracy today: Islam and the governments of the Muslim nations. Abdou Filali-Ansary, Bernard Lewis, and others present a comprehensive exploration of Muslim thought and faith in an increasingly secular, modern world. It is in this volatile political and religious climate that solutions are most urgently needed but also most elusive. Johns Hopkins University Press

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Books
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The Johns Hopkins University Press
Authors
Larry Diamond
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A full day of speeches, discussions, and interaction on critical international issues.

MAIN SPEAKERS

Samuel R. Berger, Chairman of Stonebridge International and former National Security Advisor

Hans Blix, Chairman, Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission and former U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq

Paul Collier, Professor of Economics, Oxford University

Philip Zelikow, Counselor of the Department of State and former Executive Director of the 9/11 Commission

CHECK IN 7:30 AM

BREAKFAST & WELCOME 8 AM - 9 AM

WELCOME

John Hennessy, President, Stanford University

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

Coit D. Blacker, SIIS Director, and William J. Perry, former Secretary of Defense

MORNING PLENARY SESSIONS 9 AM - 12:30 PM

Hans Blix on the risks of a new nuclear arms race and Paul Collier on governance and democracy.

LUNCH 1 PM

SPEAKER

Philip Zelikow, The United States and the World

AFTERNOON SESSIONS 2:30 PM - 5:45 PM

Breakout sessions with Stanford faculty, policy-makers, international academics, and journalists, on issues such as reform of the United Nations, our energy future, U.S. policy in Korea, the future of U.S./European relations, Russia, international criminal justice and peace, global climate change, and international responses to infectious diseases.

PARTICIPATING STANFORD FACULTY & SCHOLARS INCLUDE

Donald Kennedy, Larry Diamond, Michael Armacost, Gi-Wook Shin, Stephen Stedman, Scott Sagan, Christopher Chyba, Lynn Eden, David Victor, Allen Weiner, Alan Garber, Amir Eshel, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Doug Owens, John McMillan, and Dan Okimoto.

RECEPTION 6 PM

DINNER 7 PM

SPEAKER

Samuel R. Berger, U.S. Foreign Policy: The Road Ahead.

Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center

Conferences
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When addressing an externality such as air pollution, regulators can control policy inputs (e.g., pollution taxes and technology standards) or outputs (e.g., emission caps). Economists are familiar with this debate, known broadly as "prices vs. quantities," but analysts of international environmental agreements have rarely focused sustained attention to such questions. Using an inventory of all international air pollution agreements, we document the historical patterns in instrument choice. Those agreements that require little effort beyond the status quo are usually codified in terms of effort, but agreements that require substantial actions by the parties nearly always deploy a cap on emission quantities as the central regulatory instrument.

We suggest that this concentration of experience with emission caps and paucity of serious efforts to coordinate policy inputs may explain why the architects of international environmental agreements appear to believe that emission caps work best. We illustrate what's at stake with the example of international efforts to control the emissions that cause global climate change. We also show that the conventional history of the agreement that is most symbolic of the superiority of emission caps - the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer - has wrongly overlooked a little-known provision that operates akin to a "price" instrument.

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Global Environmental Politics
Authors
David G. Victor

This meeting will focus on the intersection of two crucial challenges for the organization of energy infrastructures in the developing world. First, for nearly two decades most major developing countries have struggled to introduce market forces in their electric power systems. In every case, that effort has proceeded more slowly than reformers originally hoped; the outcomes have been hybrids that are far from the efficiency and organization of the "ideal" textbook model for a market-based power system. Second, growing concern about global climate change has put the spotlight on the need to build an international regulatory regime that includes strong incentives for key developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases. In most of those countries, the power sector is the largest single source of emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol included mechanisms that would reward developing nations that cut emissions, but so far those systems have functioned far short of their imagined potential. A growing chorus of analysts and policy makers are expressing dissatisfaction with those existing mechanisms and clamoring for alternatives.

This meeting will offer diagnoses of what has gone wrong and what opportunities have nonetheless emerged. It will focus on practical solutions and look at the prospects for different technologies to meet growing demand for power while minimizing the ecological footprint of power generation. It will engage scholars who are studying the industrial organization of the electric power sector (and other infrastructures) in developing countries as well as those who study the effectiveness of international legal regimes. It will engage practitioners, including regulators and energy policy makers. Our aims are not only to focus on new theories that are emerging to explain the organization of the power sector and the design of meaningful international institutions, but also to identify practical implications for investors, regulators, and policy makers.

Presentations will include recent results from the research of Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. We will present the main findings from a comprehensive study of power market reform in five developing countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa). We will also show the results from a detailed analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions from two key states in India and three provinces in China--a study conducted jointly with the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad. In addition, we will present new conclusions from ongoing work that focuses on strategies for engaging developing countries in the global climate regime. Among the topics considered will be the prospects for accelerating the introduction of natural gas into electric power systems--especially those in China and India where the present domination of coal leads to relatively high emissions.

Oksenberg Conference Room

Workshops
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A unique publication exploring the opportunities for addressing ten of the most serious challenges facing the world today: Climate Change, Communicable Diseases, Conflicts, Education, Financial Instability, Corruption, Migration, Malnutrition and Hunger, Trade Barriers, Access to Water. In a world fraught with problems and challenges, we need to gauge how to achieve the greatest good with our money. Global Crises, Global Solutions provides a rich set of arguments and data for prioritising our response most effectively. Each problem is introduced by a world-renowned expert defining the scale of the problem and describing the costs and benefits of a range of policy options to improve the situation. Each challenge is evaluated by economists from North America, Europe and China who attempt a ranking of the most promising options. Whether you agree or disagree with the analysis or conclusions, Global Crises, Global Solutions provides a serious, yet accessible, springboard for debate and discussion.

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Cambridge University Press, in "Global Crises, Global Solutions"
Authors
Peter Blair Henry
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Increased efficiency of nitrogen (N) fertilizer use may be achieved with management practices that account for spatial variability in soil properties and temporal variability in climate. In this study, we develop a N management decision model for an irrigated wheat system that incorporates hypothetical diagnostics of soil N and growing season climate. The model is then used to quantify the potential value of these forecasts with respect to wheat yields, farmer profits, and excess N application. Under the current scenario (i.e. no diagnostics), uncertainty in soil and climate conditions is shown to account for an average overapplication of N by roughly 35%. Both soil diagnostics and climate forecasts are shown to increase profits significantly and decrease over-application of N, with minimal changes in yield. Soil variability is roughly three times as important as climate variations in terms of potential impact on profits in this region. The model was also used to simulate the effect of increases in fertilizer price, which have similar positive effects on excess N application but negative impacts on profits. Finally, the role of forecast uncertainty was evaluated, indicating that even limited information on soil or climate can be a useful input to management decisions. Future work is needed to improve operational diagnostics of soil N and growing season climate, whose cost can then be compared to benefits calculated in this study to determine their net value to N management decisions.

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Journal Articles
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Field Crops Research
Authors
David Lobell
Gregory P. Asner
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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an "ENSO summit" each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.

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Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
Authors
Rosamond L. Naylor
Whitney L. Smith
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Climate change is one of the most complex issues facing policy-makers today. Controlling the emissions that cause global warming will require societies to incur costs now while uncertain benefits accrue in the distant future. These conditions make it difficult to create succesful policy, yet the longer we wait the more greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere. Even as a consensus grows that something must be done, there is no agreement on the best course of action.

This book takes a fresh look at the issue. It offers three contrasting perspectives, each cast as a presidential speech. One emphasizes the ability of modern, wealthy societies to adapt to the changing climate. A second speech urges reengagement with the Kyoto Protocol while demanding reforms that would make Kyoto more effective. A third speech urges unilateral action that would create a market for low-carbon emission technologies from the "bottom up," in contrast with top-down international treaties such as Kyoto.

A memorandum to the president explains the multidimensional nature of this critical issue and an extensive appendix includes scientific reports, government speeches, legislative proposals, and further readings.

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Books
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Journal Publisher
The Council on Foreign Relations
Authors
David G. Victor
Number
0-87609-343-8
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