Climate
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Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
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Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
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David Victor Speaker
Workshops
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This study employed aRicardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climatechange showing that the spatial distribution of climatechangeimpact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climatechange scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

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Global and Planetary Change
Authors
Glwadys A. Gbetibouo
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Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any comparable period of human history. We have done this to meet the growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber, and fuel. While changes to ecosystems have enhanced the well-being of billions of people, they have also caused a substantial and largely irreversible loss in diversity of life on Earth, and have strained the capacity of ecosystems to continue providing critical services.

Richly illustrated with maps and graphs, Current State and Trends presents an assessment of Earth's ability to provide twenty-four distinct services essential to human well-being. These include food, fiber, and other materials; the regulation of the climate and fresh water systems, underlying support systems such as nutrient cycling, and the fulfillment of cultural, spiritual, and aesthetic values. The volume pays particular attention to the current health of key ecosystems, including inland waters, forests, oceans, croplands, and dryland systems, among others. It will be an indispensable reference for scientists, environmentalists, agency professionals, and students.

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Island Press, Washington, DC in "Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current State and Trends."
Authors
Rosamond L. Naylor
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Wheat yields in Mexico, which represent an important measure of breeding and management progress in developing world wheat production, have increased by 25% over the past two decades. Using a combination of mechanistic and statistical models, we show that much of this increase can be attributed to climatic trends in Northwest states, in particular cooling of growing season nighttime temperatures. This finding suggests that short-term prospects for yield progress are smaller than suggested by recent yield increases, and that future gains will require an intensification of research and extension efforts aimed at raising wheat yields.

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Field Crops Research
Authors
David Lobell
Gregory P. Asner
Pamela Matson
Rosamond L. Naylor

"Energy security" is an elastic concept. However, it offers the prospect of linking "hard security" issues, such as territorial protection and supply of vital fuels, in mutually reinforcing ways, with "soft security" issues, such as protection of the environment generally and specifically the limitation of the emissions that lead to global climate change. Such linkages, which could engage a large number of countries and diverse interests, make energy security a good prospect for early action by the L20. Moreover, security of energy supply is once again high on the agenda of most governments because of the current high prices for energy, notably oil. Political action is needed not only because consumers demand it, but also because a large and growing fraction of the world oil supply is under direct control of governments who make supply decisions on the basis of political factors.

Oksenberg Conference Room

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Climate change is a global phenomenon, but the institutions needed to implement effective policy reside mainly with national governments. This mismatch explains why serious efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases, such as markets for emission credits, are fragmented across national and regional lines. Climate policy is emerging from the bottom up rather than through globally orchestrated treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol. The authors of this Policy Forum state that fuller efforts to control emissions will require serious engagement of the United States and developing countries, as well as viable schemes for integrating the many fragmented policies that are arising as governments grapple with the climate challenge.

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Science
Authors
David G. Victor
Joshua C. House
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The combined forces of El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) eventsand global warming are likely to have dramatic effects on future cropproduction and food security in Indonesia and other tropical countries.Indonesia consistently experiences dry climatic conditions and droughtsduring El Nino events, resulting in delayed production of rice—thecountry’s primary food staple—and exacerbated problems of foodinsecurity among the poor. Our preliminary analysis suggests thatglobal climate change could cause Indonesia’s “normal” climate state tobe similar to an El Nino state currently. Unfortunately, globalclimate models (GCMs) link poorly to regional hydrologic conditions in thetropics, and have limited coverage of the Indonesian archipelago, excludingareas representing 75% of the population and 66% of the riceproduction (Figure 1). Therefore results from the GCM need to befurther “downscaled” to understand the effects of global climate changeon Indonesian hydrology and agriculture.

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Working Papers
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Rosamond L. Naylor
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Following the recent elections in Germany, Heinz Bude will explain the election results and discuss the current political climate in Germany in terms of the larger historical and global perspective.

The End of '68:

One could call it a return of the vanished. After German society determined that the Federal Republic had only become a western, liberal country as a result of the Uprising of 1968, debates continue on how to view this place of remembrance of the post-war period. This is due to a surprising actualization and sobering historization of the Uprising at an exhibition at the Berliner Kunstwerke. Here, the attractiveness of 1968 is directly linked to the RAF. Not the disparateness but the unity of protest and terror represents the lure of the matter. This re-labeling of 68 as a form of "radical chic" finds its confirmation in more recent historical research that proves that no firewall exists between 68 and the RAF. The terror of the RAF did not represent an inversion of the protest of 68, but was constitutive for the entire movement. There is no innocence, no learning, only the successful disappearance of a bout of tragic political passions.

Then what was 1968? What must dismay us in retrospect, and what has taken roots in the cultural superstructure? Perhaps the unfinished debate between Jürgen Habermas and Karl Heinz Bohrer must be resumed: What about 1968 was universalistic emancipation and what was extremist surrealism?

Encina Hall
East Wing
Ground Floor E008

Heinz Bude Professor of Sociology Speaker University of Kassel
Seminars
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Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a
force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and
air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than
six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded
in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have
enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they
also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production,
maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate
infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate
human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and
services in the long term.

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Journal Articles
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Science
Authors
Holly Gibbs
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