Climate
Paragraphs
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change will inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. We present several quantitative criteria that could be used to prioritize these investments, with a focus on global food security impacts by 2030. An analysis of climate risks for 94 crops across 12 food insecure regions is first conducted, based on statistical crop models and climate projections from 20 general circulation models. Subsets of crops are then identified based on different criteria, such as the impacts under "best case", "most likely", and "worst case" scenarios. Overall, results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops important to a large food insecure population. The particular crops identified, however, depend on criteria that will vary for different institutions according to their capabilities, goals, and risk attitudes. Results from this work is helping inform investment decisions made by the Global Crop Diversity Trust. Press release and media coverage.
All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Science
Authors
David Lobell
Rosamond L. Naylor

Instruments of Energy Policy, hosted by the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, brings to Stanford four notable researchers working in the policy and academic arena of energy policy. They will present their current energy research drawing from their respective backgrounds in economics, political sience, and environmental science and policy.

Paragraphs

Effective strategies for managing the dangers of global climate change are proving very difficult to design and implement. They require governments to undertake a portfolio of efforts that are politically challenging because they require large expenditures today for uncertain benefits that accrue far into the future. That portfolio includes tasks such as putting a price on carbon, fixing the tendency for firms to under-invest in the public good of new technologies and knowledge that will be needed for achieving cost-effective and deep cuts in emissions; and preparing for a changing climate through investments in adaptation and climate engineering. Many of those efforts require international coordination that has proven especially difficult to mobilize and sustain because international institutions are usually weak and thus unable to force collective action...."

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements
Authors
David G. Victor
Paragraphs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is among the technologies with greatest potential leverage to combat climate change. According to the PRISM analysis, a technology assessment performed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), wide deployment of CCS after 2020 in the US power sector alone could reduce emissions by approximately 350 million tonnes of CO2 per year (Mt CO2/yr) by 2030, a conclusion echoed by the McKinsey U.S. Mid-range Greenhouse Gas Abatement Curve 2030. But building CCS into such a formidable climate change mitigation “wedge” will require more than technological feasibility; it will also require the development of policies and business models that can enable wide adoption. Such business models, and the regulatory environments to support them, have as yet been largely undemonstrated. This, among other factors, has caused the gap between the technological potential and the actual pace of CCS development to remain large.

The purpose of the present work is to quantify actual progress in developing carbon storage projects (here defined as any projects that store carbon underground at any stage of their operation or development, for example through injection into oil fields for enhanced recovery or in saline aquifers or other geological formations). In this way, the real development ramp may be compared in scale and timing against the perceived need for and potential of the technology. Some very useful lists of carbon storage projects already exist – see, for example, the IPCC CCS database, the JP Morgan CCS project list, the MIT CCS database, and the IEA list. We seek to maintain an up-to-date database of all publicly-announced current and planned projects from which we can project a trajectory of carbon stored underground as a function of time. To do this, we estimate for each project the probability of completion as well as the potential volume of CO2 that can be stored as of a given year.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #76
Authors
Varun Rai
Ngai-Chi Chung
Mark C. Thurber
David G. Victor
Paragraphs

Climate change and land use change can affect multiple infectious diseases of humans, acting either independently or synergistically. Expanded efforts in empiric and future scenario-based risk assessment are required to anticipate problems. Moreover, the many health impacts of climate and land use change must be examined in the context of the myriad other environmental and behavioral determinants of disease. To optimize prevention capabilities, upstream environmental approaches must be part of any intervention, rather than assaults on single agents of disease. Clinicians must develop stronger ties, not only to public health officials and scientists, but also to earth and environmental scientists and policy makers. Without such efforts, we will inevitably benefit our current generation at the cost of generations to come.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Medical Clinics of North America
Authors
Holly Gibbs
Paragraphs

BACKGROUND: Strengthening hospital safety culture offers promise for reducing adverse events, but efforts to improve culture may not succeed if hospital managers perceive safety differently from frontline workers.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether frontline workers and supervisors perceive a more negative patient safety climate (ie, surface features, reflective of the underlying safety culture) than senior managers in their institutions. To ascertain patterns of variation within management levels by professional discipline.

RESEARCH DESIGN: A safety climate survey was administered from March 2004 to May 2005 in 92 US hospitals. Individual-level cross sectional comparisons related safety climate to management level. Hierarchical and hospital-fixed effects modeling tested differences in perceptions.

SUBJECTS: Random sample of hospital personnel (18,361 respondents).

MEASURES: Frequency of responses indicating absence of safety climate (percent problematic response) overall and for 8 survey dimensions.

RESULTS: Frontline workers' safety climate perceptions were 4.8 percentage points (1.4 times) more problematic than were senior managers', and supervisors' perceptions were 3.1 percentage points (1.25 times) more problematic than were senior managers'. Differences were consistent among 7 safety climate dimensions. Differences by management level depended on discipline: senior manager versus frontline worker discrepancies were less pronounced for physicians and more pronounced for nurses, than they were for other disciplines.

CONCLUSIONS: Senior managers perceived patient safety climate more positively than nonsenior managers overall and across 7 discrete safety climate domains. Patterns of variation by management level differed by professional discipline. Continuing efforts to improve patient safety should address perceptual differences, both among and within groups by management level.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Medical Care
Authors
Sara J. Singer
Laurence C. Baker
-

New evidence that the climate system may be especially sensitive to the build-up of green house gases and that humans are doing a poor job of controlling their effluent has animated discussions around the prospects of offsetting the human impact on climate through "geoengineering". Nearly all assessments of geoengineering have concluded that the option, while ridden with flaws and unknown side effects, is intreguing because of its low cost and the ability for one or a few nations to geoengineer the planet without cooperation from others.  I argue that norms to govern deployment of geoengineering sysytems  will be needed soon.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
0
Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
dvictoronline2.jpg
David G. Victor Director, PESD Speaker Stanford University
Workshops

School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning
Arizona State University

0
Assistant Professor, Arizona State University
matei.JPG PhD

Matei "Matt" Georgescu is a Post-doctoral Scholar in the Center on Food Security and the Environment. His general research focuses on the use of mesoscale numerical modeling to study the interaction(s) between the land and overlying atmosphere.  Human alteration of the earth's surface has changed (and continues to change) the manner in which solar radiation is absorbed by the surface and in turn modifies the fluxes of energy and water back into the atmosphere, with significant implications for weather and climate.

Specifically, he is interested in the regional climatic impact of changing landscapes, due to, for example, altered agricultural practices or urbanization. At Stanford, his main goal will be to quantify how local and regional climate responds to landscape change resulting from increased biofuel production.

Dr. Georgescu completed his Ph.D. at Rutgers University in May, 2008. His current work at Stanford is a direct extension of his work at Rutgers, where he investigated, using a numerical modeling approach, the climatic effect of one of the most rapidly urbanizing areas in the United States - the Greater Phoenix region. A recipient of a NASA Earth System Science Fellowship, his work showed the significant impact of anthropogenic landscape modification, in a semi-arid region, on regional climate.

ASU bio

» Annual Meeting 2008 Materials (password protected)

PESD's 2008 Annual Review Meeting, Reconciling Coal and Energy Security, will be held October 29-30, 2008 at Stanford University. The meeting is PESD's annual forum in which to create a wide-ranging conversation around our research and obtain feedback to shape our research agenda going forward.

PESD is a growing international research program that works on the political economy of energy. We study the political, legal, and institutional factors that affect outcomes in global energy markets. Much of our research has been based on field studies in developing countries including China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico.

At present, PESD is active in four major areas: climate change policy, energy and development, the global coal market, and the role of national oil companies.

The workshop will begin on Wednesday, October 29 at 8:30 am with registration and breakfast followed by a welcome and an overview of PESD's research activities. This year's Annual Meeting will have a concerted focus on carbon markets, regulation, and carbon capture and storage models. There will be a session in the morning that will discuss and explore ways to engage developing countries on climate change. New to this year's meeting will be a reception and poster session at the conclusion of the first day. We also anticipate discussion of areas where PESD can better collaborate with other institutions. The meeting ends at 1pm on Thursday, October 30.

Annual Meeting invitees can access the complete agenda and subsequent presentation files by logging on with your password.

Bechtel Conference Center

Conferences
Subscribe to Climate