Climate
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Feature-tracking techniques are employed to investigate why there is a relative minimum in storminess during winter within the Pacific storm track (the midwinter suppression). It is found that the frequency and amplitude of disturbances entering the Pacific storm track from midlatitude Asia are substantially reduced during winter relative to fall and spring and that the magnitude of this reduction is more than sufficient to account for the midwinter supression. Growth rates of individual disturbances are calculated and compared to expectations from linear theory for several regions of interest. Although there are discrepancies between linear expectations and observed growth rates over the Pacific, the growth of disturbances within the Pacific storm track cannot explain why the midwinter suppression exists. Furthermore, it is determined that the development of a wintertime reduction in storminess over midlatitude Asia is consistent with linear expectations, which predict a wintertime minimum in Eady growth rates in this region, mainly because of increased static stability. Several other mechanisms that may contribute to the initiation of the midwinter suppression over midlatitude Asia are discussed,including the interaction between upper-level waves and topography, the behavior of waves upwind of the Tibetan Plateau, and the initiation of lee cyclones.

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Journal of Climate
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David S. Battisti
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BusinessForum China
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Gang He
Varun Rai
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Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10-60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20-50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by equal amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields - or highly aggregated poverty impacts.

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GTAP
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Thomas Hertel
David Lobell
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There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

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Environmental Research Letters
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Wolfram Schlenker
David Lobell
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FSE Center Fellow David Lobell and research associate Marshall Burke released a new book, Climate Change and Food Security, this week out of Springer publishing house. The book explains the nature of the climate threat, the ways in which crops and farmers might respond, and the potential role for public and private investment to help agriculture adapt to a warmer world.

Roughly a billion people around the world continue to live in state of chronic hunger and food insecurity. Unfortunately, efforts to improve their livelihoods must now unfold in the context of a rapidly changing climate, in which warming temperatures and changing rainfall regimes could threaten the basic productivity of the agricultural systems on which most of the world's poor directly depend. But whether climate change represents a minor impediment or an existential threat to development is an area of substantial controversy, with different conclusions wrought from different methodologies and based on different data.

This book aims to resolve some of the controversy by exploring and comparing the different methodologies and data that scientists use to understand climate's effects on food security. It explains the nature of the climate threat, the ways in which crops and farmers might respond, and the potential role for public and private investment to help agriculture adapt to a warmer world. This broader understanding should prove useful to both scientists charged with quantifying climate threats, and policy-makers responsible for crucial decisions about how to respond.

 

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Holly Gibbs
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Investigation of the links between high rates of bushmeat hunting and potential reductions in forest carbon stocks over time. The authors hypothesize that bushmeat hunting may lead to shifts from carbon-rich, seed dispersed tree species to carbon-poor, wind dispersed species.

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Since President Lee Myung-bak introduced the "Green Growth" policy in 2008, Korea has actively advocated it in every aspect of the society as a new engine of growth. The Presidential Committee on Green Growth was created as a control tower of the policy developments and green industries were identified, and along the same line of efforts, the Basic Law on Green Growth was enacted.  Korea, among the developing countries under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was the first to volunteer to reduce emissions by 30 percent of anticipated BAU by 2020.  It also initiated the East Asia Climate Partnership through which 200 million USD was pledged to assist developing countries in the region to cope with climate change.  The Lee administration has revealed its ambitious plans to launch Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) next year, which is presumed to play a catalyst role in inducing a low carbon economy.  Furthermore, it is expected that Korea, as Chair of the G20 in 2010, will aggressively promote green finance and green technology.

Suh Yong Chung is Associate Professor in the Division of International Studies at Korea University and is an international expert on sustainable development law and policy. His research covers various emerging issues in the environment and sustainable development such as climate change, marine environment, and biodiversity both at global and regional level. His most recent works focus on internationalization of Green Growth policy, post-2010 climate change regime formation, and regional environmental institution building in Northeast Asia.  He is a member of the Compliance Committee of the UN Basel Convention, and has participated in various activities of international organizations including the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), UNDP/GEF Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem Project, UNEP’s Northwest Pacific Action Plan (NOWPAP), and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UNESCAP). He has also advised on international law and policy issues in Korea for the Presidential Committee on Green Growth, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Ministry of Environment and the Organizing Committee of the 2012 Yeosu EXPO.
 
Suh Yong Chung holds degrees in law and international relations from Seoul National University, the London School of Economics and Stanford Law School. He was a researcher at Shorenstein APARC and has continuously been involved in its activities as the Secretary General of the Stanford APARC Forum in Korea.

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Suh Yong Chung Associate Professor, Division of International Studies, Korea University Speaker
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In only two generations, South Korea has transformed from an economic "basket case" into one of the world’s leading economies and trading states. Its phenomenal economic development brought its people out of poverty, modernized its society, and culminated in a dynamic democracy. Today Korea stands as a leading developmental model for countries throughout East Asia and, indeed, the entire world.

Having achieved an advanced economy, Korea’s economic policymakers now face major new challenges. The ever-increasing pace of globalization requires that they provide a vision for the economy that takes into account increased competition, the transition in postwar global financial and trade regimes, scientific and technological revolutions, energy shortages, and climate change, among many others. Korea is seeking again to be a model, this time in leading the way in adjusting to and shaping a new global economic era. The administration of President Lee Myung-bak has undertaken major reforms at home, and is also playing a significant role in international economic, trade, and financial policymaking, including as host of the November 2010 G20 summit.

Using Korea as a case study to explore the parameters of economic globalization and individual states’ adjustment to it, Stanford’s Korean Studies Program, in collaboration with the Korea Development Institute, will host an international workshop on campus, March 18–19, 2010. Leading scholars and former senior officials from Korea and the United States will explore key aspects of economic globalization and Korea’s role, from policies and politics, to the economic prospects of a unified Korea. Their presentations will be published as an edited volume in conjunction with the Brookings Institution Press. 

The Koret Fellowship was established at the Korean Studies Program in 2008, with the generous support of the Koret Foundation, to bring leading professionals in Asia and the United States to Stanford to conduct research on contemporary U.S.-Korean relations, with the broad aim of fostering greater understanding and closer ties between the two countries.

This workshop is supported by the generous grant from Koret Foundation.

Bechtel Conference Center

Shorenstein APARC
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2009-10 Koret Fellow
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Byongwon Bahk, former Senior Advisor to President Lee Myung-bak of Korea, joined the Korean Studies Program as the recipient of the Koret Fellowship for 2009-10 academic year.

Mr. Bahk served as Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance and Economy in Korea and was a senior advisor to President Lee Myung-bak briefly.  While at the Center, he will lead a reach project on economic affairs of Korea in relations to the U.S.

The Koret Fellowship, generously funded by the by Koret Foundation of San Francisco, was established at the Center in 2008 to bring leading professionals in Asia and the United States to Stanford to conduct research on contemporary U.S.-Korean relations, with the broad aim of fostering greater understanding and closer ties between the two countries.

Byongwon Bahk 2009-2010 Koret Fellow Speaker
Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall E301
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 724-8480 (650) 723-6530
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
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Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the founding director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC. He served as director of APARC for two decades (2005-2025). As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.

In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India to be published by Stanford University Press in the summer of 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.

Shin is also the author/editor of twenty-six books and numerous articles. His books include Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007);  and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals, including American Journal of SociologyWorld DevelopmentComparative Studies in Society and HistoryPolitical Science QuarterlyJournal of Asian StudiesComparative EducationInternational SociologyNations and NationalismPacific AffairsAsian SurveyJournal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.

Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations, historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia, and talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.

Before joining Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.

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Director of the Korea Program and the Taiwan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Gi-Wook Shin Director, APARC Director, APARC Speaker
Oh-Seok Hyun President of Korea Development Institute Speaker
Hyoung-Tae Kim President of Korea Capital Market Institute Speaker

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5656
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Peter M. Beck teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. and Ewha University in Seoul.  He also writes a monthly column for Weekly Chosun and The Korea Herald. Previously, he was the executive director of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea and directed the International Crisis Group's Northeast Asia Project in Seoul.  He was also the Director of Research and Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington. He has served as a member of the Ministry of Unification's Policy Advisory Committee and as an adjunct faculty member at Georgetown and Yonsei universities.

He also has been a columnist for the Korean daily Donga Ilbo, an instructor at the University of California at San Diego, a translator for the Korea Foundation, and a staff assistant at Korea's National Assembly and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He has published over 100 academic and short articles, testified before Congress, and conducted interviews with the world's leading media outlets. He received his B.A. from the University of California at Berkeley, completed the Korean language program at Seoul National University, and conducted his graduate studies at U.C. San Diego's Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies.

2009-10 Pantech Fellow
Peter M. Beck 2009-10 Pantech Fellow, APARC 2009-10 Pantech Fellow, APARC Speaker
Joon Nak Choi Stanford University Speaker
Eun Mee Kim Eun Mee Kim Professor, Ewha University Speaker
Taeho Bark Professor, Seoul National University Speaker
Jin Kyo Suh Director, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Speaker

No longer in residence.

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Associate Director of the Korea Program
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David Straub was named associate director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) on July 1, 2008. Prior to that he was a 2007–08 Pantech Fellow at the Center. Straub is the author of the book, Anti-Americanism in Democratizing South Korea, published in 2015.

An educator and commentator on current Northeast Asian affairs, Straub retired in 2006 from his role as a U.S. Department of State senior foreign service officer after a 30-year career focused on Northeast Asian affairs. He worked over 12 years on Korean affairs, first arriving in Seoul in 1979.

Straub served as head of the political section at the U.S. embassy in Seoul from 1999 to 2002 during popular protests against the United States, and he played a key working-level role in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program as the State Department's Korea country desk director from 2002 to 2004. He also served eight years at the U.S. embassy in Japan. His final assignment was as the State Department's Japan country desk director from 2004 to 2006, when he was co-leader of the U.S. delegation to talks with Japan on the realignment of the U.S.-Japan alliance and of U.S. military bases in Japan.

After leaving the Department of State, Straub taught U.S.-Korean relations at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in the fall of 2006 and at the Graduate School of International Studies of Seoul National University in spring 2007. He has published a number of papers on U.S.-Korean relations. His foreign languages are Korean, Japanese, and German.

David Straub Associate Director of Korean Studies Program, APARC Moderator

Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Lecturer in International Policy at the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy
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Daniel C. Sneider is a lecturer in international policy at Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy and a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford. His own research is focused on current U.S. foreign and national security policy in Asia and on the foreign policy of Japan and Korea.  Since 2017, he has been based partly in Tokyo as a Visiting Researcher at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, where he is working on a diplomatic history of the creation and management of the U.S. security alliances with Japan and South Korea during the Cold War. Sneider contributes regularly to the leading Japanese publication Toyo Keizai as well as to the Nelson Report on Asia policy issues.

Sneider is the former Associate Director for Research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford. At Shorenstein APARC, Sneider directed the center’s Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, a comparative study of the formation of wartime historical memory in East Asia. He is the co-author of a book on wartime memory and elite opinion, Divergent Memories, from Stanford University Press. He is the co-editor, with Dr. Gi-Wook Shin, of Divided Memories: History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia, from Routledge and of Confronting Memories of World War II: European and Asian Legacies, from University of Washington Press.

Sneider was named a National Asia Research Fellow by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the National Bureau of Asian Research in 2010. He is the co-editor of Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia, Shorenstein APARC, distributed by Brookings Institution Press, 2007; of First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier, 2009; as well as of Does South Asia Exist?: Prospects for Regional Integration, 2010. Sneider’s path-breaking study “The New Asianism: Japanese Foreign Policy under the Democratic Party of Japan” appeared in the July 2011 issue of Asia Policy. He has also contributed to other volumes, including “Strategic Abandonment: Alliance Relations in Northeast Asia in the Post-Iraq Era” in Towards Sustainable Economic and Security Relations in East Asia: U.S. and ROK Policy Options, Korea Economic Institute, 2008; “The History and Meaning of Denuclearization,” in William H. Overholt, editor, North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War?, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, 2019; and “Evolution or new Doctrine? Japanese security policy in the era of collective self-defense,” in James D.J. Brown and Jeff Kingston, eds, Japan’s Foreign Relations in Asia, Routledge, December 2017.

Sneider’s writings have appeared in many publications, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, Slate, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, National Review, the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Oriental Economist, Newsweek, Time, the International Herald Tribune, the Financial Times, and Yale Global. He is frequently cited in such publications.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Sneider was a long-time foreign correspondent. His twice-weekly column for the San Jose Mercury News looking at international issues and national security from a West Coast perspective was syndicated nationally on the Knight Ridder Tribune wire service. Previously, Sneider served as national/foreign editor of the Mercury News. From 1990 to 1994, he was the Moscow bureau chief of the Christian Science Monitor, covering the end of Soviet Communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1985 to 1990, he was Tokyo correspondent for the Monitor, covering Japan and Korea. Prior to that he was a correspondent in India, covering South and Southeast Asia. He also wrote widely on defense issues, including as a contributor and correspondent for Defense News, the national defense weekly.

Sneider has a BA in East Asian history from Columbia University and an MPA from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Daniel C. Sneider Associate Director of Research, APARC Commentator
Michael H. Armacost Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, APARC Moderator
William F. Miller Professor of Computer Science Emeritus, Stanford University Commentator
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FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
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Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Henry S. Rowen Professor of Computer Science Emeritus, Stanford University Speaker
Moon Joong Tcha Director, Korea Development Institute Speaker
Euni Valentine former Managing Director of UBS Investment Bank Commentator
Thomas F. Cargill Professor, Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Reno Speaker
Philip Yun Vice President, Asia Foundation Commentator
Suk-In Chang Director, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade Speaker
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