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PESD researchers Richard K. Morse and Gang He are in Copenhagen attending international climate negotiations at the UN's COP 15.  Key issues in PESD's research platform are prominently featured in the event: carbon capture and storage, reform of the clean development mechanism (CDM), Chinese energy markets, carbon markets,  the future of coal and gas and global emissions, the smart grid, and a host of other topics central to the future of the global energy system.  Richard and Gang are testing their latest research with some of the world's key decision markers on energy and climate and sharing Stanford and PESD insights in this global forum.

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(Excerpt) According to climate scientists, averting the worst consequences of climate change requires that the increase in global temperature should be limited to 2°C (or 3.6°F). to achieve that objective, global emissions of green house gases (GHGs)—the main human cause of global warming—must be reduced to 50 percent of 1990 levels by 2050.

The key to successful climate change abatement at those scales lies in leveraging the collective actions of developed and developing countries. Cumulatively, developed countries have been responsible for most human emissions of GHGs. that picture will be quite different in the future as emissions from the developing world take over the top mantle. Given this dynamic, there is a general agreement internationally that developed countries will lead emissions reductions efforts and that developing countries will follow with “nationally ap- propriate mitigation actions.” turning that agreement into environmentally beneficial action requires close international coordination between the developed and developing countries in allocating the responsibility for the necessary reductions and following up with credible actions. However, the instruments employed so far to promote the necessary collective action have proved to be insufficient, unscalable, and questionable in terms of environmental benefit and economic efficiency.

Currently, the most important and visible link be- tween developed and developing countries’ efforts on climate change is the Clean development Mechanism (CdM). the CdM uses market mechanisms—the “carbon markets”—to direct funding from developed countries to those projects in developing countries that lead to reductions in emissions of warming gases. In reality, the experience with the CdM has been mixed at best since its inception in 2006. while the CdM has successfully channeled funding to many worthy projects that reduce emissions of warming gasses, it has also spawned myriad projects with little environmental benefits. overall, the CdM has led to a significant overpayment by developed countries for largely dubious emissions reductions in developing countries.

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Harvard International Review
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Varun Rai
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The traditional approach to demand response of paying for a customer's electricity consumption reductions relative to an administratively set baseline is currently being advocated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) as a way to foster the participation of final consumers in formal wholesale markets. Although these efforts may lead to greater participation of final consumers in traditional demand response programs, they are likely to work against the ultimate goal of increasing the benefits that electricity consumers realize from formal wholesale electricity markets, because traditional demand response programs are likely to provide a less reliable product than generation resources. The moral hazard and adverse selection problems that reduce the reliability of the product provided by traditional demand response resources can be addressed by treating consumers and producers of electricity symmetrically in the wholesale market. Several suggestions are made for how this would be accomplished in both the energy and ancillary services markets. A specific application of this general approach to the California wholesale electricity market is also provided.

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The Electricity Journal
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Frank Wolak
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Coal is the major primary energy which fuels economic growth in China. The original Soviet-style institutions of the coal sector were adopted after the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949. But since the end of 1970s there have been major changes: a market system was introduced to the coal sector and the Major State Coalmines were transferred from central to local governments. This paper explains these market-oriented and decentralizing trends and explores their implications for the electric power sector, now the largest single consumer of coal.

The argument of this paper is that the market-oriented and decentralizing reforms in the coal sector were influenced by the changes in state energy investment priority as well as the relationship between the central and local governments in the context of broader reforms within China’s economy. However, these market-oriented and decentralizing reforms have not equally influenced the electric power sector. Since coal is the primary input into Chinese power generation, and power sector reform falls behind coal sector reform, the tension between the power and coal sectors is unavoidable and has raised concerns about electricity shortages.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Working Paper #86
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Focusing on capture systems for coal-fired power plants until 2030, a sensitivity analysis of key CCS parameters is performed to gain insight into the role that CCS can play in future mitigation scenarios and to explore implications of large-scale CCS deployment.
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This paper analyzes the potential contribution of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the U.S. electricity sector.  Focusing on capture systems for coal-fired power plants until 2030, a sensitivity analysis of key CCS parameters is performed to gain insight into the role that CCS can play in future mitigation scenarios and to explore implications of large-scale CCS deployment.  By integrating important parameters for CCS technologies into a carbon-abatement model similar to the EPRI Prism analysis (EPRI, 2007), this study concludes that the start time and rate of technology diffusion are important in determining the emissions reduction potential and fuel consumption for CCS technologies. 

Comparisons with legislative emissions targets illustrate that CCS alone is very unlikely to meet reduction targets for the electric-power sector, even under aggressive deployment scenarios.  A portfolio of supply and demand side strategies will be needed to reach emissions objectives, especially in the near term.  Furthermore, the breakdown of capture technologies (i.e., pre-combustion, post-combustion, and oxy-fuel units) and the level of CCS retrofits at pulverized coal plants also have large effects on the extent of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Working Paper #85
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Varun Rai
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[See video interview with Chris Field and David Lobell here].

Biofuels such as ethanol offer an alternative to petroleum for powering our cars, but growing energy crops to produce them can compete with food crops for farmland, and clearing forests to expand farmland will aggravate the climate change problem. How can we maximize our "miles per acre" from biomass?

Researchers writing in the May 7, 2009, edition of the journal Science say the best bet is to convert the biomass to electricity rather than ethanol. They calculate that, compared to ethanol used for internal combustion engines, bioelectricity used for battery-powered vehicles would deliver an average of 80 percent more miles of transportation per acre of crops, while also providing double the greenhouse gas offsets to mitigate climate change.
 
"It's a relatively obvious question once you ask it, but nobody had really asked it before," said study co-author Christopher B. Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution. "The kinds of motivations that have driven people to think about developing ethanol as a vehicle fuel have been somewhat different from those that have been motivating people to think about battery electric vehicles, but the overlap is in the area of maximizing efficiency and minimizing adverse impacts on climate."
 
Field, who is also a professor of biology at Stanford University and a senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment, is part of a research team that includes lead author Elliott Campbell of the University of California-Merced and David Lobell of Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment.

Bioelectricity vs. ethanol

The researchers performed a life-cycle analysis of both bioelectricity and ethanol technologies, taking into account not only the energy produced by each technology, but also the energy consumed in producing the vehicles and fuels. For the analysis, they used publicly available data on vehicle efficiencies from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other organizations.
 
Bioelectricity was the clear winner in the transportation-miles-per-acre comparison, regardless of whether the energy was produced from corn or from switchgrass, a cellulose-based energy crop. For example, a small SUV powered by bioelectricity could travel nearly 14,000 highway miles on the net energy produced from an acre of switchgrass, while a comparable internal combustion vehicle could only travel about 9,000 miles on the highway. (Average mileage for both city and highway driving would be 15,000 miles for a biolelectric SUV and 8,000 miles for an internal combustion vehicle.)
 
"The internal combustion engine just isn't very efficient, especially when compared to electric vehicles," said Campbell. "Even the best ethanol-producing technologies with hybrid vehicles aren't enough to overcome this."

Climate change 

The researchers found that bioelectricity and ethanol also differed in their potential impact on climate change. "Some approaches to bioenergy can make climate change worse, but other limited approaches can help fight climate change," said Campbell.  "For these beneficial approaches, we could do more to fight climate change by making electricity than making ethanol."
 
The energy from an acre of switchgrass used to power an electric vehicle would prevent or offset the release of up to 10 tons of CO2 per acre, relative to a similar-sized gasoline-powered car.  Across vehicle types and different crops, this offset averages more than 100 percent larger for the bioelectricity than for the ethanol pathway. Bioelectricity also offers more possibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through measures such as carbon capture and sequestration, which could be implemented at biomass power stations but not individual internal combustion vehicles.
 
While the results of the study clearly favor bioelectricity over ethanol, the researchers caution that the issues facing society in choosing an energy strategy are complex. "We found that converting biomass to electricity rather than ethanol makes the most sense for two policy-relevant issues: transportation and climate," said Lobell. "But we also need to compare these options for other issues like water consumption, air pollution, and economic costs."
 
"There is a big strategic decision our country and others are making: whether to encourage development of vehicles that run on ethanol or electricity," said Campbell. "Studies like ours could be used to ensure that the alternative energy pathways we chose will provide the most transportation energy and the least climate change impacts."
 
This research was funded through a grant from the Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project, with additional support from the Stanford Program on Food Security and the Environment, UC-Merced, the Carnegie Institution for Science, and a NASA New Investigator Grant.

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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Jun Ding, “Corporate Social Responsibility in State-Owned Enterprises”

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in China’s industrialization achievement and support social service functions in the planning era.  After China entered the marketing era, SOEs declined substantially and are in need of reform.  Ding believes SOEs should be restructured and that supernumeraries and social services functions should be separated from the primary mission of SOEs into society.  Ding’s research emphasizes recommendations found in corporate social responsibility that exists in China.


Mitsutoshi Kumagai “Impact on Growing On-line Video Services on Pay TV Business Model”

Recently, YouTube is not the only online video service many people enjoy.  Big players of traditional broadcasting industries are making strategic approaches in online space.  Kumagai’s presentation reviews and assesses those challenges in TV industries and its value as advertisement media.

Tadashi Ogino, “Smart Meters in the United States and Japan”

A smart meter is an advanced electric meter that measures the electricity usage in more detail than a conventional meter. Utility companies and customers can use this data for energy efficiency. A smart meter is a key component for the next generation electric grid.  Many smart meters have already been installed in the US, but smart meters are not used in Japan. Ogino analyzes the current situation of smart meter projects in the US and in Japan. He tries to understand why smart meters are not prominent in Japan.

Ayaka Takashima, "Women Entrepreneurs in Japan and the United States”

Recently in Japan, women entrepreneurs have been becoming one of the career choices for women. As an employee of Nissouken, which provides entrepreneurship program, Takashima is trying to reveal women entrepreneurs' habitat and tendency through comparative research.

Philippines Conference Room

Jun Ding Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, PetroChina Speaker
Mitsutoshi Kumagai Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Sumitomo Corporation Speaker
Tadashi Ogino Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Mitsubishi Electric Speaker
Ayaka Takashima Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Nissoken Speaker
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FSI's Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) is pleased to announce the selection of a new director, Frank Wolak, who is Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies in the Department of Economics and FSI Senior Fellow.  Professor Wolak brings to the post a distinguished record of scholarship and deep policy experience in energy and environmental economics and regulation.

Wolak’s wide-ranging research contributions have examined energy systems both domestically and in emerging markets around the world.  He is the Chairman of the Market Surveillance Committee of the California Independent System Operator for the electricity supply industry in California and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), among other professional affiliations.

PESD founder David G. Victor, Professor of Law and FSI Senior Fellow, stepped down from the director position effective April 1, 2009. PESD Assistant Director Mark C. Thurber will take over as acting director until Wolak assumes the director position on September 1, 2009.

Victor will remain at Stanford as faculty through the end of the summer of 2009, when he will leave to become a full professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at U.C. San Diego, where he will build a research group working on the study of international regulation.
 
“FSI and Stanford are extremely grateful to David Victor for all that he has done to establish PESD and build it into the innovative and influential research program that it is today,” said FSI Director Coit D. Blacker, the Olivier Nomellini Professor in International Studies. “I know that the entire Stanford community joins me in extending our best wishes to David and in offering a hearty welcome to Frank.”

In a world facing profound transformations in the way energy is generated and used, PESD’s work on how political, economic, and institutional factors combine to shape energy market outcomes meets a critical global research need. For additional information on PESD research interests and platforms, please contact Acting Director Mark Thurber.

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