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Payne Distinguished Lecture Series 2009 Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 3: Anticipating Opportunities: Using Intelligence to Shape the Future

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Thomas Fingar, the 2009 Payne Distinguished Lecturer and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, will give the third Payne Distinguished Lecture on October 21, 2009, in the Bechtel Conference Center, 616 Serra Street.

The theme for the 2009-10 series is Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security.  Dr. Fingar's third lecture will be titled, "Anticipating Opportunities: Using Intelligence to Shape the Future."

Dr. Thomas Fingar is Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and, concurrently, as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

Dr. Fingar served previously as Assistant Secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000), Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-1994), and Chief of the China Division (1986-1989). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including Senior Research Associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in Political Science).

The Payne Lectureship is named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations.

The Payne Distinguished Lecturer is chosen for his or her international reputation as a leader, with an emphasis on visionary thinking; a broad, practical grasp of a given field; and the capacity to clearly articulate an important perspective on the global community and its challenges.

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Bechtel Conference Center

Thomas Fingar

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
tom_fingar_vert.jpg PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

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. Fingar Former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis; Chairman of the National Intelligence Council; Payne Distinguished Lecturer Speaker
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Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Lecture Series

The Terror of Natural Right: Republicanism, the Cult of Nature, and the French Revolution

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In The Terror of Natural Right, Dan Edelstein argues that the revolutionaries used the natural right concept of the “enemy of the human race”—an individual who has transgressed the laws of nature and must be executed without judicial formalities—to authorize three-quarters of the deaths during the Terror. But the significance of the natural right did not end with its legal application. Edelstein argues that the Jacobins shared a political philosophy that he calls “natural republicanism,” which assumed the natural state of society was a republic and that natural right provided its only acceptable laws. Ultimately, he argues that what we call the Terror was in fact only one facet of the republican theory that prevailed from Louis’s trial until the fall of Robespierre.

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A New Look at The Generalissimo - and at China

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Jay Taylor, former Director of Analysis for Asia and Pacific Affairs at the State Department and a staff member of the White House National Security Council for East Asia, is currently a Research Associate at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University. He obtained his MA in Far Eastern Studies from the University of Michigan and BA from Vanderbilt University. He is the author of The Generalissimo's Son: Chiang Ching-kuo and the Revolutions in China and Taiwan (Harvard, 2000), and The Generalissimo: Chiang Kai-shek and the Struggle for Modern China (Harvard, 2009). 

Taylor will give a talk on Chiang Kai-shek's role in modern and contemporary China. For historians, a new, balanced, more complex, and uniquely sourced examination of the life of Chiang Kai-shek may reshape the history of the rise of communism and the failure of democracy in China. For political scientists, it may suggest that the vision that drives China today is that of Chiang Kai-shek, not Mao Zedong.

Stauffer Auditorium
Herbert Hoover Memorial Bldg.
Stanford University

Jay Taylor Research Associate Speaker Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University
Seminars

Pearl Harbor Memory: Survivor Reflections

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"Pearl Harbor Memory: Survivor Reflections" was a panel presentation that took place during a "Pearl Harbor: History, Memory, Memorial" summer institute that was sponsored by the AsiaPacificEd Program, East-West Center, Honolulu. The summer institute was part of the Landmarks of American History and Culture Workshop for Schoolteachers supported by the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) under the We the People Initiative. Additional support for the program was provided by the Arizona Memorial Museum Association, the National Park Service and the Japan American Society of Hawaii.

AsiaPacificEd Program
East-West Center
University of Hawaii

Conferences

Anti-Semitic Fascism(s) to Fascist Anti-Semitism: Jews in Interwar Europe

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Dr. Aristotle Kallis is a senior lecturer in European Studies at Lancaster University, UK and a well know expert on interwar fascism. Dr. Kallis works specifically on Italian Fascism and German National Socialism, both individually and in comparative terms.  He researches fascism in generic terms - as an intellectual phenomenon with various national permutations - and explores its links to indigenous nationalist traditions. His research on fascism has also extended to different areas, such as totalitarianism, propaganda, eugenics and genocide. His current project is devoted to Fascist Rome in the 1922-43 period. This project, which combines urban, cultural and intellectual history, examines the way in which Fascism attempted to re-create 'space' and symbolism in Rome with a view to transforming the city as a statement of its universal utopianism. It analyses the Fascist intentions (placed in a wider framework of urbanistic debates, both inside Italy and across Europe/ the world) and examines the extent to which they were translated into practice in the two decades of Fascist rule.

Jointly sponsored by the Forum on Contemporary Europe, Taube Center for Jewish Studies, and Department of History at Stanford University.

Margaret Jacks Hall
Building 460
Terrace Room

Aristotle Kallis Senior Lecturer, European Studies, Lancaster University, UK Speaker
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Anu Mai Koll

Södertörn University
Address: 141 89 HUDDINGE, SWEDEN

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Professor of Baltic History, Culture and Society
Director, Centre for Baltic and East European Studies, Södertörn University, Sweden
FCE Anna Lindh Fellow (Fall 2009)
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Anu Mai Kőll is Professor of Baltic History, Culture and Society and Director of the Centre for Baltic and East European Studies at Sődertőrn University in Stockholm, Sweden. She has written works on Swedish and Baltic agrarian history, economic history and the history of  Soviet repression in the Baltic countries. Her recent research focuses on the impact of persecutions and local people’s participation in repression on civil society after World War II in the Baltic countries. Another field of interest is agrarian politics 1880-1939 in the Baltic Sea Area, where the analysis of family farming, agrarian cooperation and land reforms has been conducted in comparative perspective. She has also studied economic nationalism in the Baltics, with other Central and Eastern European economies. Her publications include Economic Nationalism and Industrial Growth. State and Industry in Estonia 1934-39, Studia Baltica Stockholmiensia SBS no 19, 1998 with J. Valge, The Baltic States under Occupation 1939-91, SBS 23, Stockholm 2003, Kommunismens ansikten, Repression övervakning och svenska reaktioner [The Faces of Communism] Eslöv:Symposion 2005

Call for Papers: "Region, State, Nation, Community: New Research in Scandinavian and Baltic Studies"

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The 100th Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Scandinavian Study (SASS) and the 22nd Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS): "Region, State, Nation, Community: New Research in Scandinavian and Baltic Studies" taking place April 22 – 24, 2010 in Seattle, Washington.

AABS welcomes papers, panels, and roundtable presentations for the first joint conference of Scandinavian and Baltic Studies in the United States.  The conference aims to highlight and foster academic inquiry that draws comparisons between Scandinavia (Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland) and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania).  Papers that examine stateless peoples and those left outside of the Scandinavian/Baltic approach, but sharing the same geographic space, are equally welcome.  Papers and panels devoted to individual states are also welcome.  Contributions are encouraged from disciplines including (but not limited to): anthropology, architecture, communication, cultural studies, demography, economics, education, environment, ethnic relations, film studies, fine arts, gender studies, geography, history, international relations, law, linguistics, literature, memory, political science, psychology, public health, religion, sociology, tourism, and advancing Baltic and Scandinavian studies.  Presentations are not to exceed 20 minutes in length.
 
Proposals from Ph.D. students will be considered for a Presidents’ Panel on Scandinavian and Baltic Studies that recognizes the most accomplished and innovative work of new scholars.
 
Paper and panel proposals must include an abstract (no more than 250 words) and a one to two-page curriculum vitae.  Send this material embedded in the body of an e-mail (no attachments) to Aldis Purs at (aldisp@u.washington.edu) by December 11, 2009.  Paper submissions can be mailed to:
 
22nd AABS Conference Chair
University of Washington,
Box 353420
Seattle, WA 98195-3420
 
Conference Website: http://depts.washington.edu/aabs/
Date: April 22-24, 2010
Location:  Crowne Plaza Hotel, 1113 Sixth Ave., Seattle, Washington 98101
 
Registration information will be available on the website.  All presenters must be SASS or AABS members in good standing.   If you are in need of assistance in finding potential co-panelists from either Scandinavian studies or Baltic Studies, please contact the conference organizer (listed above) to help with such networking by November 1, 2009.

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Kevin Y. Kim

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5646 (650) 723-6530
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2009-10 Shorenstein APARC Pre-doctoral Fellow
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Kevin Y. Kim is a Ph.D. candidate in History at Stanford University. He specializes in 20th century U.S. foreign relations, with an emphasis on U.S.-Asia relations. He currently is completing a dissertation titled, “Forging the Free World: Korea, U.S. Leaders, and the World, 1948-1954.” This study examines the impact of the Korean War upon the evolution of U.S. national leaders’ foreign policy ideas on strategy, economy, race, and world politics. Influenced by “constructivist” approaches and traditional historical methods, his dissertation explores the Korean War period as a formative moment in the construction of contemporary U.S. liberal and conservative foreign policy beliefs.

Before entering graduate school, Kim was a Fulbright fellow in South Korea from 2001 to 2002, where he taught English in a Daejeon public middle school and studied Korean language and U.S.-Asia relations at various institutions. He also briefly pursued a career in journalism, and has written on culture, domestic politics, and international affairs for publications such as The Nation, The Progressive, Far Eastern Economic Review, South China Morning Post, and The Village Voice.

Kim received his M.A. in History from Stanford University and a B.A. in English and Comparative Literature from Columbia University. He was born and raised in the New York City metropolitan area.

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