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It is now widely recognized that a rigorous, policy-relevant impact evaluation embeds the counterfactual analysis of impact in a wider analysis of the underlying program theory (theory of change) of the intervention, also referred to as causal chain analysis. Unpacking the causal chain requires a combination of factual and counterfactual analysis. The seminar will present examples of causal chains. The types of data collection and analysis – both quantitative and qualitative – to analyze the different links in the chain will be discussed. A major challenge in mixed methods is to truly integrate quantitative and qualitative approaches.

About the speaker

Howard White formerly led the impact evaluation program of the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank, where he was responsible for impact studies on basic education in Ghana, health and nutrition in Bangladesh, rural electrification, rural development in Andhra Pradesh and a review of impact studies of water supply and sanitation.

Philippines Conference Room

Howard White Executive Director Speaker International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ieimpact.org)
Seminars

Encina Hall East, 4th Floor,
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Alexis Medina is the Associate Director for Research Programs at SCCEI, and also Associate Director of the Rural Education Action Program (REAP). At SCCEI, she helps to connect China-oriented faculty and graduate students with university resources and with one another, as well as to navigate administrative bureaucracies on both sides of the Pacific. She has been directly involved in building research networks and fostering connections between the US and China since 2006, and has extensive experience in international program management, including leading survey teams in rural China, overseeing the design and development of field projects, and coordinating data collection efforts and analysis. Her academic expertise lies at the intersection of health and education, and she has co-authored dozens of academic publications in this area. Alexis speaks fluent Mandarin, and has previously held research positions at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and Shandong University in China.

Associate Director, Research Programs, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Associate Director, Rural Education Action Program
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In partnership with the Center for Health Policy (CHPPCOR) at Stanford, this research initiative brings together medical doctors, health economists, and political scientists seeking to understand infant mortality declines in the post-War Era. The research initiative develops new measures of political incentives for population health improvement embedded in finely grained political institutions.

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Food and agricultural policy experts Prabhu Pingali and Philip Pardey will each speak on trends in productivity and investments in technology, survey of constraints to productivity, incentives and investment, and opportunities to raise productivity.

The Green Revolution - past successes, unfinished business, and the way forward

Pingali will review strategic components of the Green Revolution and its achievement and limits in terms of agricultural productivity improvement and broader impact at social, environmental and economic levels, including its impact on food and nutrition security. Lessons learned and the strategic insights these provide will be reviewed as the world is preparing a "redux" version of the Green Revolution with more integrative environmental and social impact combined with agricultural and economic development. Pingali will also point to core research & policy gaps that can enhance further spread and sustainable adoption of productivity enhancing technologies.

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Prabhu Pingali is the Deputy Director of Agricultural Development at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Formerly, he served as Director of the Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Pingali was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences as a Foreign Associate in May 2007, and he was elected Fellow of the American Agricultural Economics Association in 2006. Pingali was the President of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) from 2003-06. Pingali has over twenty five years of experience in assessing the extent and impact of technical change in agriculture in developing countries, including Asia, Africa and Latin America.

 African Agricultural R&D and Productiivity Growth in a Global Setting

Given the continuing importance of agriculture in most African economies, an in-depth understanding of the past and likely future productivity performance of African agriculture is key to assessing the overall economic growth and development prospects of the region. African agriculture operates in increasingly interconnected global commodity markets, so the relative productivity performance of African vis-à-vis rest-of-world agriculture is also relevant. This talk will present new evidence on African agricultural productivity performance and place that evidence in relation to the evolving pattern of agricultural productivity growth worldwide. Technological change is a principal driver of productivity growth, and new, updated evidence on the trends in R&D investments that give rise to these technological changes will also be presented and discussed. The productivity effects of R&D play out over comparatively long periods of time demanding a long-run look at these developments.    
 

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Philip Pardey is Professor of Science and Technology Policy in the Department of Applied Economics, and Director of the University of Minnesota's International Science and Technology Practice and Policy (InSTePP) center. His research deals with the finance and conduct of R&D globally, methods for assessing the economic impacts of research, and the economic and policy (especially intellectual property) aspects of genetic resources and the biosciences. He is a Fellow of the American Agricultural Economics Association and a Distinguished Fellow of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

Bechtel Conference Center

Prabhu Pingali Deputy director, Agricultural Development Speaker Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Philip Pardey Professor of Science and Technology, Applied Economics Speaker University of Minnesota
Symposiums
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Christopher Barrett reviews the evidence on persistent poverty with a focus on rural Africa. He emphasizes the importance of asset accumulation, productivity growth, risk management and the sociopolitical institutions that govern economic activity. Barrett's talk synthesizes lessons learned about what works, what doesn't and why, and identifies key topics in need of further investigation.

William Masters, Professor of Food Policy in the Friedman School of Nutrition at Tufts University, will join the conversation as a discussant following Barrett's presentation. 

Biography

Christopher Barrett is the Stephen B. & Janice G. Ashley Professor of Applied Economics and Management and International Professor of Agriculture at Cornell University. He teaches and does research primarily in poverty and international development. His research program also has strong links to international, agricultural, environmental and micro economics as well as to applied econometrics. He is a Faculty Fellow and Associate Director, Economic Development Programs, at the new Cornell Center for a Sustainable Future. The Center is a major Cornell initiative aimed at promoting cutting-edge research on sustainable development in collaboration with key external partners to achieve significant real-world impact. He is also the Director of Cornell's Food Systems and Poverty Reduction IGERT program.

Bechtel Conference Center

Christopher Barrett Stephen B. & Janice G. Ashley Professor of Applied Economics and Management, International Professor of Agriculture Speaker Cornell University
William Masters Professor of Food Policy Commentator Friedman School of Nutrition, Tufts
Symposiums
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The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and its Asia Health Policy Program have joined with other centers and programs across the university as collaborative partners for the new Stanford Center for Population Research (SCPR). Supporting population research among faculty and students throughout Stanford, the SCPR is led by Professor Shripad Tuljapurkar, co-editor with Karen Eggleston of the book Aging Asia: Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea.

The Stanford Center for Population Research, based in the Institute for Research in Social Sciences, has leadership and involvement across campus including the Humanities, Natural Sciences, Environmental programs, and the Medical School. The goal is to promote, support and develop population studies through collaboration among researchers and training for undergraduate and graduate students, serving as both a resource and nexus for faculty at Stanford across disciplines with interests in population studies, broadly defined.  

The Asia Health Policy Program will work with the Stanford Center for Population Research in studying the implications of demographic change in the Asia-Pacific region. For example, Karen Eggleston is undertaking comparative study of population health trends in China and India with other Stanford faculty associated with SCRP.

AHPP will also support the mission of strengthening the teaching of population studies at the undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral levels, by helping to make connections for students studying demographic change in Asia. The 2011 postdoctoral fellow in Asia health policy, Qiulin Chen, will be studying population aging in China in comparative perspective. Shorenstein APARC’s affiliation with the SCRP will also help to reinforce the new Shorenstein APARC initiative studying policy responses to population aging in East Asia, kicking off with a workshop in January 2011.

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