THE QUESTION

On 22 February 2026, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho), founder and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Within hours, over 370 violent incidents erupted across 25 states: narco-blockades, arson attacks on OXXO stores and Bancos del Bienestar, and direct ambushes of Guardia Nacional units that killed at least 25 officers. Some observers warned of an impending nationwide insurgency. The data tell a more qualified story.

WHAT THE DATA SHOWS

Using two independent georeferenced incident datasets — DataInt (251 records) and Aliado/Alephri (138 records), merged and deduplicated into 370 events — we mapped the timing, geography, and severity of every incident and asked whether the pattern looks like a coordinated national campaign or something else entirely.