Iran, Israel, and the Risk of Direct War
Iran, Israel, and the Risk of Direct War
In a conversation with Or Rabinowitz, Sima Shine, Senior Researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and Rax Zimmt, Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis research program at INSS, discussed escalation, regional actors, and regime change.
The January 28, 2026, Israel Insights Webinar hosted by the Jan Koum Israel Studies Program and moderated by Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies Or Rabinowitz featured security experts Sima Shine and Raz Zimmt. Analyzing the growing likelihood of direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, they said that despite Iran’s proxy strategy's failure to prevent escalation and rising domestic pressure, Tehran remains committed to rebuilding Hezbollah and other allied groups. Shine and Zimmt said that a future war—likely more expansive than previous exchanges—could involve strikes on leadership, economic, and symbolic targets. They discussed Israel’s desire for U.S. leadership in any major military action against Iran and Gulf states’ strong opposition to war and instability and preference for a negotiated U.S.–Iran agreement. Skeptical that external military action will yield rapid democratic change in Iran, they argued a more viable transformation likely requires gradual emergence within the regime.
A full recording of the webinar can be viewed above.
