Larry Diamond, coordinator of the Democracy Program at CDDRL and recently a political adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad, spoke at SIIS on May 11. In his lecture, "Transition to What in Iraq?" he painted a grim picture of Iraq's future. He warned that, unless the violence in Iraq is brought under control and the political playing field is equalized, the likelihood of transforming Iraq into a democratic country is slim.

To produce an outcome in Iraq that is even vaguely positive, Diamond explained, a new, legitimate Iraqi state armed forces must be established, and the insurgency of the Mahdi army -- the militia faction most opposed to American intervention -- must be defeated.