In a stunning political victory, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic two-thirds supermajority in a snap election for the lower house of the National Diet (Japan’s House of Representatives) on February 8, 2026. The result gives Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, an unprecedented mandate to pursue her domestic and foreign policy agenda.

How did she turn a fragile coalition into the LDP’s strongest position in the postwar era? And how will she use this immense new power to navigate the fiscal and foreign policy challenges facing Japan? 

In a new installment of the APARC Briefing series, APARC and Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui explains the context for Japan's snap election, its stunning outcomes, and far-reaching implications. Get his analysis.

The "Takaichi Effect"

Having been in office for only four months, Takaichi leveraged her personal popularity to call a snap election for the lower house, despite the LDP’s lagging approval ratings and a razor-thin coalition majority. It was a high-stakes gamble. The bet paid off, cementing her authority within her party and on the world stage.

According to Tsutsui, the landslide victory was driven by two simultaneous forces. The first was the powerful "Takaichi Effect," a combination of her refreshing, plain-spoken style, celebrity status among young voters, and a tireless campaign that contrasted sharply with her political rivals. She mastered social media engagement and successfully projected an image of a strong, modern leader capable of decisive action.

The second force at work was the spectacular failure of the main opposition bloc. The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) – a hastily formed merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito – failed to present a compelling alternative. Perceived as old-fashioned and out of touch by voters concerned with economic stability and national security, the CRA lost more than half its seats.

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A Massive New Mandate

With the LDP's supermajority, Takaichi now has a green light to implement her policy agenda. Domestically, this means a proactive fiscal policy involving significant government spending to ease inflation and strategic investments in key technologies, such as AI and quantum computing. Tsutsui cautions, however, that this expansionary approach has already rattled financial markets, and Takaichi’s greatest challenge will be balancing her promises with the need to maintain fiscal discipline.

In terms of foreign policy, the most pressing issue is the China-Japan bilateral relationship, which plunged to its lowest point in years after Takaichi's comments about Taiwan angered China. Beijing has responded with a pressure campaign ranging from sending warships to limiting rare earth exports and curbing Chinese tourism, but Takaichi has refused to apologize or retract her remarks. Now her landslide election win indicates that Japanese voters strongly support her tough stance on China's pressure efforts.

"I think China now has to respect Takaichi as a strong leader, but that does not mean China would back down and somewhat become conciliatory all of a sudden," says Tsutsui. "This tango will continue on."

The election victory also gives Takaichi the political capital to approach her upcoming summit with U.S. President Donald Trump from a position of strength, ready to reaffirm the alliance while navigating potential demands by the Trump administration regarding defense spending and trade.

Ultimately, Tsutsui notes, "China-U.S. relations will likely shape China-Japan relations."

Democracy and Constitutional Reform

Does the LDP's stunning victory mean a return to its political dominance? Possibly, "but the lower house electoral system is set up in such a way that the wind could blow in the other direction, and the LDP could face a massive defeat in the next or the next next election," Tsutsui explains. The election results certainly raise questions about the opposition bloc's strategy for recovery from its decisive defeat.

At the same time, the rise of two small parties – the conservative Sanseito and the techno-optimist party Team Mirai – reflects an electorate that is still eager for new ideas. Yet, "to think that Japan is moving to the political right is not necessarily true," Tsutsui argues.

With the LDP's supermajority in the lower house, the question of constitutional reform is also on the table. In particular, all eyes are on the prospects for amending Article 9, which has enshrined Japan's pacifism. If Takaichi wins another victory in the next upper house election, then a constitutional amendment becomes even more realistic, Tsutsui says.

Japanese voters have given Prime Minister Takaichi a clear and powerful mandate. Her challenge now is to turn that political capital into successful and sustainable policy.

In the Media

Check out this February 16 BBC News article quoting Tsutsui:
China Is Hitting Japan Where It Hurts. Will PM Takaichi Give In?