US-China Relations in 2025: Great Power Groundhog Day
US-China Relations in 2025: Great Power Groundhog Day
The US-China relationship in 2025 is expected to remain largely unchanged from the status quo established in 2008, despite changes in leadership and global circumstances. While improved relations could benefit China's economy and help address internal issues, the risks associated with reengagement and necessary reforms, in the eyes of the Chinese leadership, outweigh the benefits. Meanwhile in Washington, China's policy doesn't seem to be a pressing concern as Trump is more focused on domestic affairs.
The US–China relationship in 2024 was better than many feared and worse than some had hoped. That has largely been the case every year since about 2008 and is likely to prove true in 2025 despite the election of Donald Trump and alarmist predictions about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aspirations with respect to Taiwan.
The reason for this is that key drivers and shapers of national policy in both countries have not changed. Orchestrating fundamental changes in policy is difficult in both systems and Trump and Xi seem to have determined that maintaining the status quo is preferable to managing the risks and opportunity costs of untested alternatives. Fixing the bilateral relationship is not at the top of either country’s agenda.
Read the full commentary, published by East Asia Forum >
