Trends in the Strategic Triangle: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations in the Coming Decade

Friday, May 28, 2010

8:00 am to 8:30 am

Registration & Reception
Continental Breakfast

8:30 am to 8:40 am

Introduction Larry Diamond, Director of CDDRL; Senior Fellow of Hoover Institution and FSI, Stanford University

8:40 am to 10:15 am

Session I: What Can We Learn from History: Looking Back on the Evolution of U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

Chair: Hung-mao Tien, President of the Institute for National Policy Research, Taiwan

Speakers:

• Steve Goldstein, Sophia Smith Professor of Government, Smith College, and Associate, Asia Center, Harvard University
• Tom Christensen, Professor of Politics and International Affairs and Director of the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, Princeton University

• Richard Bush, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institute

10:15 am to 10:30 am

Break

10:30 am to 12:00 pm

Session II: Cross-Strait Economic and Social Ties: Current Trends, and What Will They Look Like in 2025

Chair: Yun-han Chu, Distinguished Fellow of the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Professor of Political Science, National Taiwan University

Speakers:

• Cheng-shu Kao, Professor of Sociology, Tung-hai University, Taiwan
• Charles Kao, Founder and Chairman, Commonwealth Publishing Group, Taiwan

Noon to 1:30 pm

Luncheon Address and Discussion—“Assessing the First Two Years of the Ma Ying-jeou Presidency: A Conversation with Dr. Su Chi,” former secretary-general of the National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan)

1:45 pm to 3:15 pm

Session III: The Changing Military Balance: Current Trends and Future Prospects

Chair: Larry Diamond, Director, CDDRL

Speakers:

• Admiral (Ret.) Eric McVadon, Director, Asia-Pacific Studies, Institute of Foreign Policy Analysis, Cambridge MA, and Washington DC
• Chong-Pin Lin, Professor of Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University; Former Deputy Minister of Defense of ROC
• Litai Xue, Research Associate, APARC, Stanford University

3:15 pm to 3:30 pm

Break

3:30 pm to 5:00 pm

Session IV: What kind of (Super) Power will China be in 2025? Political Scenarios and Implications for China’s Foreign Policy and Taiwan Policy

Chair: Tom Fingar, the Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow and Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Speakers:

• Mike Lampton, Dean of Faculty, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and Professor of Chinese Studies, Johns Hopkins University
• Suisheng Zhao, Professor and Executive Director of the Center for China-US Cooperation at the Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver

Saturday, May 29, 2010

8:30 am to 9:00 am

Continental Breakfast

9:00 am to 10:40 am

Session V: How will Taiwan (Re)Define Itself Politically, Economically and Internationally by 2025

Chair: Jean Oi, William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics, and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Speakers:

• Yun-han Chu, Distinguished Fellow of the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Professor of Political Science, National Taiwan University; President of the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange
• Shelley Rigger, Brown Associate Professor of East Sian Politics, and coordinator of Asian Studies, Davidson College
• Daniel Da-nien Liu, Research Fellow, Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, Taiwan

• Richard Bush, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, the Brookings Institute

10:40 am to 11:00 am

Break

11:00 am to 12:40 pm

Session VI: How will the U.S. Relate to China’s Rising Power and Taiwan’s Rising Vulnerability

Chair: Larry Diamond, Director, CDDRL

Speakers:

• Tom Fingar, the Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow and Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
• Su Chi, former secretary-general of the National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan)

12:40 pm to 1:45 pm

Lunch

1:45 pm to 3:15 pm

Roundtable Conclusion