Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Sacred Foundations
This major study by Anna Grzymała-Busse shows that the Catholic Church both competed with medieval monarchs and provided critical templates for governing institutions, the rule of law, and parliaments.
Silicon Triangle: The United States, Taiwan, China, and Global Semiconductor Security
Larry Diamond and colleagues examine the “silicon triangle" that binds the United States, Taiwan, and China and will impact each country's economy, security, trade, and long-term competitiveness.
Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program
Siegfried Hecker recounts the seven trips he made to North Korea between 2044 and 2021 to explore ways to reduce the danger posed by Pyongyang’s advancing nuclear weapons program.
Given the size of the problem and the scientific evidence that timely intervention can improve long-term outcomes, an important question is how to best scale-up early childhood development (ECD) interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A key component of the solution is financing. However, there has been little research on the question of whether cost-sharing models can equitably and sustainably finance ECD programs at scale in LMICs. We built parenting centers in two rural communities of Western China to teach caregivers how to stimulate child development through fun and interactive activities. We used the Becker-Degroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism to elicit the household willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a one-month pass to the parenting centers. The results of the BDM suggest that a cost-sharing model would not be suitable for China's rural population at least in the short-run. Demand was found to be highly elastic. In addition, we found limited evidence of selection effects. We also found no evidence of sunk-cost effects.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
February 20, 2024
From Mesopotamian cities to industrialized nations, gossip has been at the center of bonding human groups. Yet the evolution of gossip remains a puzzle. The current article argues that gossip evolves because its dissemination of individuals’ reputations induces individuals to cooperate with those who gossip. As a result, gossipers proliferate as well as sustain the reputation system and cooperation.
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER),
February 20, 2024
This paper studies the unintended effect of English language requirement on educational inequality by investigating how the staggered rollout of English listening tests in China’s high-stakes National College Entrance Exam (NCEE) affected the rural-urban gap in college access. Leveraging administrative data covering the universe of NCEE participants between 1999 and 2003, we find that the introduction of English listening tests significantly lowered rural students’ exam score percentile ranks relative to their urban counterparts, resulting in a 30% increase in the rural-urban gap in college access. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that, as a result of this policy change, more than 54,000 rural students lost college seats to their urban peers between 1999 and 2003, and another 11,000 rural students who elite colleges could have admitted ended up in non-elite colleges, causing them significant future income losses.
Patient Education and Counseling,
February 15, 2024
Objectives Patient satisfaction is an essential indicator of the doctor-patient relationship. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between primary care quality and patient satisfaction for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in rural western China.
Methods The study utilized the standardized patients (SPs) approach to present typical symptoms of unstable angina and diabetes to rural healthcare providers. After the consultations, the SPs completed a satisfaction survey. Ordinary least squares and quantile regression were used to examine the association between quality of primary care and patient satisfaction.
Results We examined 178 anonymous SPs visits. The results showed that higher process quality for angina SPs was correlated with stronger satisfaction for provider ability at a low quantile of ability satisfaction. For diabetes SPs, higher process quality increased overall satisfaction at a low quantile of overall satisfaction, whereas a correct diagnosis significantly contributed to communication satisfaction at a high quantile of communication satisfaction.
Conclusions The study found positive associations between process and diagnosis quality and SPs satisfaction. Notably, the influence of process quality was most significant among patients with lower satisfaction levels.
Uncritically equating acute nuclear attack effects and AI threats risks reproducing the same kind of all-or-nothing thinking that drove some of the most dangerous dynamics of the nuclear arms race.
Background Poor development of young children is a common issue in developing countries and it is well established that iron deficiency anemia is one of the risk factors. Research has shown that iron deficiency is a common micronutrient deficiency among children in rural China and can result in anemia. A previous paper using data from the same trial as those used in the current study, but conducted when sample children were younger, found that after 6 months of providing caregivers of children 6–11 months of age free access to iron-rich micronutrient powder (MNP) increased the hemoglobin concentrations (Hb) of their children. However, no effects were found 12 and 18 months after the intervention. The current study followed up the children four years after the start of the original intervention (when the children were 4–5 years old) and aims to assess the medium-term impacts of the MNP program on the nutritional status of the sample pre-school-aged children, including their levels of Hb, the prevalence of anemia, and the dietary diversity of the diets of the children.
Methods At baseline, this study sampled 1,802 children aged 6–11 months in rural Western China. The intervention lasted 18 months. In this medium-term follow-up study that successfully followed 81% (n = 1,464) of children (aged 49–65 months) from the original study population 4 years after the start of the intervention, we used both intention-to-treat (ITT) effect and average treatment on the treated effect (ATT) analyses to assess the medium-term impacts of the MNP distribution program on the nutritional status of sample children.
Results The ITT analysis shows that the MNP intervention decreased the prevalence of anemia of young children in the medium run by 8% (4 percentage points, p < 0.1). The ATT analysis shows that consuming 100 (out of 540) MNP sachets during the initial intervention led to a decrease in anemia of 4% (2 percentage points, p < 0.1). Among children with moderate anemia at baseline (Hb < 100 g/L), the intervention reduced the probability of anemia by 45% (9 percentage points, p < 0.1), and, for those families that complied by consuming 100 (out of 540) sachets, a 25% (5 percentage points, p < 0.05) reduction in the anemia rate was found. The MNP intervention also led to a persistent increase in dietary diversity among children that were moderately anemic at baseline. The results from the quantile treatment effect analysis demonstrated that children with lower Hb levels at baseline benefited relatively more from the MNP intervention.
Conclusions The findings of the current study reveal that the MNP intervention has medium-term effects on the nutritional status of children in rural China. The impacts of the MNP program were relatively higher for children that initially had more severe anemia levels. Hence, the implications of this study are that programs that aim to increase caregiver knowledge of nutrition and improve their feeding practices should be encouraged across rural China. Families, policymakers, and China’s society overall need to continue to pay more attention to problems of childhood anemia in rural areas. This is particularly crucial for families with moderately anemic children at an early age as it can significantly contribute to improving the anemia status of children across rural areas of China.