Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Sacred Foundations
This major study by Anna Grzymała-Busse shows that the Catholic Church both competed with medieval monarchs and provided critical templates for governing institutions, the rule of law, and parliaments.
Silicon Triangle: The United States, Taiwan, China, and Global Semiconductor Security
Larry Diamond and colleagues examine the “silicon triangle" that binds the United States, Taiwan, and China and will impact each country's economy, security, trade, and long-term competitiveness.
Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program
Siegfried Hecker recounts the seven trips he made to North Korea between 2044 and 2021 to explore ways to reduce the danger posed by Pyongyang’s advancing nuclear weapons program.
With the New START Treaty supended by the Russian Federation the future of legal nuclear arms control looks even bleaker than before. This brief lays out the foundations of the treaty and the main obstacles that it faces even before it expires in 2026.
Social media has been fully integrated into the lives of most adolescents in the U.S., raising concerns among parents, physicians, public health officials, and others about its effect on mental and physical health. Over the past year, an ad hoc committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine examined the research and produced this detailed report exploring that effect and laying out recommendations for policymakers, regulators, industry, and others in an effort to maximize the good and minimize the bad. Focus areas include platform design, transparency and accountability, digital media literacy among young people and adults, online harassment, and supporting researchers.
Regional monopoly limits market reforms from improving cross-firm resource allocative efficiency, but little empirical evidence is available from developing countries. This paper provides rich evidence that regional monopoly may hinder the expansion of more productive firms, using the Chinese iron and steel sector as a case. Drawing on a comprehensive panel dataset comprising 11,136 iron and steel firms in China from 1998 to 2009, we demonstrate that market reforms in China's steel industry enhance competition at the national level, but do not effectively improve resource reallocation within provinces. Despite a decline in the market share of the top 10 largest steel enterprises from 80% to 50% between 1998 and 2009, resource reallocation only contributes to 14% of industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth, amounting to one-sixth of the contribution from within-firm productivity growth. Furthermore, the effects of resource reallocation within provinces are significantly lower compared to those observed between provinces, suggesting that market fragmentation or frictions hinder the expansion of more productive firms within the same province. These findings underscore the importance of eliminating regional monopoly for developing countries undergoing market reforms to enhance resource allocative efficiency.
Breastfeeding self-efficacy (BSE), defined as a mother’s confidence in her ability to breastfeed, has been confirmed to predict the uptake of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF). Early experiences during the birth hospital stay, especially in-hospital formula feeding (IHFF), can impact both EBF and maternal breastfeeding confidence. Therefore, our objective was to examine the association between IHFF and EBF outcomes and investigate whether this association is influenced by BSE. The study included 778 infants from a larger cohort study conducted in 2021, with a one-year follow-up in rural areas of Sichuan Province, China. We used a causal mediation analysis to estimate the total effect (TE), natural direct (NDE), and nature indirect effects (NIE) using the paramed command in Stata. Causal mediation analyses revealed that IHFF was negatively associated with EBF (TE odds ratio = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.76); 28% of this association was mediated by BSE. In the subgroup analysis, there were no significant differences in the effects between parity subgroups, as well as between infant delivery subgroups. Our study found that IHFF hindered later EBF and that BSE mediated this association. Limiting the occurrence of in-hospital formula feeding or improving maternal breastfeeding self-efficacy is likely to improve exclusive breastfeeding outcomes.
Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness,
December 7, 2023
The objective of the current study is to examine the impact of an in-school computer-assisted learning (CAL) intervention on the math achievement of rural students in Taiwan, including a marginalized subgroup of rural students called Xinzhumin, and the factors associated with this impact. In order to achieve this, we conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial involving 1,840 fourth- and fifth-grade students at 95 schools in four relatively poor counties and municipalities of Taiwan during the spring semester of 2019. While the Intention-To-Treat (ITT) analysis found that the CAL intervention had no significant impacts on student math achievement, the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) analysis revealed significant associations with the math performance of the most active 20% of students in the treatment group. LATE estimates suggest that using CAL for more than 20 minutes per week for ten weeks corresponds to higher math test scores, both in general (0.16 SD–0.22 SD), and for Xinzhumin students specifically (0.3 SD–0.34 SD). Teacher-level characteristics were associated with compliance rates.
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools have made it easy to create realistic disinformation that is hard to detect by humans and may undermine public trust. Some approaches used for assessing the reliability of online information may no longer work in the AI age. We offer suggestions for how research can help to tackle the threats of AI-generated disinformation.
Objective To investigate factors that differentiate elderly adults in rural China who accept free vision screening and cataract surgery from those who could benefit from vision care but refuse it when offered.
Design We conducted a population-based, cross-sectional study between October and December 2016. Logistic regression models were used to examine the predictors of accepting free vision screening and cataract surgery.
Setting Rural communities in Handan, China.
Participants Adults aged 50 years or older, with presenting visual acuity ≤6/18 in the better seeing eye, suspected by examining ophthalmologist to be due to cataract.
Results Among 613 persons with cataract identified on a population basis, 596 (97.2%) completed the household survey (mean (SD) age, 71.5 (10.0) years; 79.8% female). A total of 214 persons (35.9%) refused participation, while 382 (64.1%) took part in the vision screening. A total of 193 (50.5%) participants were found eligible for surgery, while 189 (49.5%) were not. Among 99 randomly selected participants who were offered immediate free surgery, surgery was accepted by 77 participants (77.8%) and refused by 22 (22.2%). In the multivariate model, being engaged in income-generating activities (p<0.01), self-reported better physical capacity (p<0.001) and having had a recent physical examination (p=0.01) were significantly associated with acceptance of vision screening. The only variable significantly associated with acceptance of surgery was presenting visual acuity, with better vision inversely associated with acceptance of surgery (p<0.05) models.
Conclusion Our results suggest that refusal of basic eye examinations may be at least as important a determinant of low surgical rates in rural China as lack of acceptance of surgery itself.
At SCCEI, we aim to shed some light on what actually is happening in China, and exactly how these happenings might affect the rest of the world. This year has been one of unprecedented growth for SCCEI, take a look at our 2022-23 Annual Report to see all of the incredible work and accomplishments we have achieved together. Download your copy or read it online.
In low- and middle-income countries, urbanization has spurred the expansion of peri-urban communities, or urban communities of formerly rural residents with low socioeconomic status. The growth of these communities offers researchers an opportunity to measure the associations between the level of urbanization and the home language environment (HLE) among otherwise similar populations. Data were collected in 2019 using Language Environment Analysis observational assessment technology from 158 peri-urban and rural households with Han Chinese children (92 males, 66 females) aged 18–24 months in China. Peri-urban children scored lower than rural children in measures of the HLE and language development. In both samples, child age, gender, maternal employment, and sibling number were positively correlated with the HLE, which was in turn correlated with language development.
