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Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.

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Grant Miller
Working Papers

Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic

M. Kate Bundorf, Jill DeMatteis , Grant Miller, Maria Polyakova, Jailu L. Streeter , Jonathan Wivagg
Nation Bureau of Economic Research , 2021
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Journal Articles

Can Bureaucrats Really be Paid like CEOs? Substitution Between Incentives and Resources Among School Administrators in China

Renfu Luo, Grant Miller, Scott Rozelle, Sean Sylvia, Marcos Vera-Hernández
Journal of the European Economic Association , 2019

Unlike performance incentives for private sector managers, little is known about performance incentives for managers in public sector bureaucracies. Through a randomized trial in rural China, we study performance incentives rewarding school administrators for reducing student anemia -- as well as complementarity between incentives and orthogonally assigned discretionary resources. Large (but not small) incentives and unrestricted grants both reduced anemia, but incentives were more cost-effective. Although unrestricted grants and small incentives do not interact, grants fully crowd-out the effect of larger incentives. Our findings suggest that performance incentives can be effective in bureaucratic environments, but they are not complementary to discretionary resources. 

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Working Papers

Family Planning and Fertility Behavior: Evidence from Twentieth Century Malaysia

Kim Babiarz, Jiwon Lee, Grant Miller, Tey Nai Peng, Christine Valente
Center for Global Development , 2017

There is longstanding debate about the contribution of family planning programs to fertility decline. Studying the staggered introduction of family planning across Malaysia during the 1960s and 1970s, we find modest responses in fertility behavior. Higher (but not lower) parity birth hazards declined by one-quarter—but imply only a 5 percent decline in the overall annual probability of birth. Age at marriage rose by 0.48 years, but birth spacing conditional on this did not otherwise change.

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Working Papers

Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Post-War Italy

Grant Miller, Marcella Alsan, Vincenzo Atella, Jay Bhattacharya, Valentina Conti
2017
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Working Papers

Municipal Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Developing Countries: Evidence from Mexico’s Programa Agua Limpia

Sonia R. Bhalotra, Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Grant Miller, Alfonso Miranda, Atheendar S. Venkataramani
National Bureau of Economic Research , 2017

Historically, improvements in the quality of municipal drinking water made important contributions to mortality decline in wealthy countries. However, water disinfection often does not produce equivalent benefits in developing countries today. We investigate this puzzle by analyzing an abrupt, large-scale municipal water disinfection program in Mexico in 1991 that increased the share of Mexico’s population receiving chlorinated water from 55% to 85% within six months.

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Journal Articles

Personality Traits and Performance Contracts: Evidence from a Field Experiment among Maternity Care Providers in India

Katherine Donato, Grant Miller, Yulya Truskinovsky, Manoj Mohanan, Marcos Vera-Hernández
American Economic Review , 2017

We study how agents respond to performance incentives according to key personality traits (conscientiousness and neuroticism) through a field experiment offering financial incentives for improving maternal and neonatal health outcomes to rural Indian doctors. More conscientious providers performed better – but improved less – under performance incentives.  The effect of the performance incentives was also smaller for providers with higher levels of neuroticism.

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Journal Articles

Effect of a Social Franchising and Telemedicine Programme on Health Care Providers’ Knowledge of, and Quality of Care for, Childhood Diarrhoea and Pneumonia in Bihar, India

Manoj Mohanan, Soledad Giardili, Veena Das, Tracy L. Rabin, Sunil S. Raj, Jeremy I. Schwartz, Aparna Seth, Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, Grant Miller, Marcos Vera-Hernández
Bulletin of the World Health Organization , 2017

Objective To evaluate the impact on the quality of the care provided for childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia in Bihar, India of a large-scale, social franchising and telemedicine programme– the World Health Partners’ Sky Program.

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Working Papers

An exploration of China’s mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950–80

Kimberly Singer Babiarz, Karen Eggleston, Grant Miller, Qiong Zhang
Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 40 , 2016

Between 1950 and 1980, China experienced the most rapid sustained increase in life expectancy in documented global history. However, no study of which we are aware has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of the various explanations proposed for these gains in survival.

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Working Papers

Population Policy: Abortion and Modern Contraception are Substitutes

Christine Valente, Grant Miller
Demography (conditionally accepted) , 2016
Abstract: 

There is longstanding debate in population policy about the relationship between modern contraception and abortion.  Although theory predicts that they should be substitutes, the existing body of empirical evidence is difficult to interpret.  What is required is a large-scale intervention that alters the supply (or full price) of one or the other – and importantly, does so in isolation (reproductive health programs

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Journal Articles

Intended And Unintended Consequences Of China’s Zero Markup Drug Policy

Hongmei Yi, Grant Miller, Linxiu Zhang, Shaoping Li, Scott Rozelle
Health Affairs , 2015

Since economic liberalization in the late 1970s, China's health care providers have grown heavily reliant on revenue from drugs, which they both prescribe and sell. To curb abuse and to promote the availability, safety, and appropriate use of essential drugs, China introduced its national essential drug list in 2009 and implemented a zero markup policy designed to decouple provider compensation from drug prescription and sales. The authors collected and analyzed representative data from China's township health centers and their catchment-area populations both before and after the reform.

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Journal Articles

Intended and Unintended Consequences of China's Zero Markup Drug Policy

Grant Miller, Shaoping Li, Scott Rozelle, Hongmei Yi, Linxiu Zhang
Health Affairs , 2015

Since economic liberalization in the late 1970s, China’s health care providers have grown heavily reliant on revenue from drugs, which they both prescribe and sell. To curb abuse and to promote the availability, safety, and appropriate use of essential drugs, China introduced its national essential drug list in 2009 and implemented a zero markup policy designed to decouple provider compensation from drug prescription and sales. We collected and analyzed representative data from China’s township health centers and their catchment-area populations both before and after the reform.

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Working Papers

Can Bureaucrats Really be Paid Like CEOs? School Administrator Incentives for Anemia Reduction in Rural China

Renfu Luo, Grant Miller, Scott Rozelle, Sean Sylvia, Marcos Vera-Hernandez
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) , 2015
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Working Papers

Family Planning Program Effects: A Review of Evidence from Microdata

Grant Miller, Kimberly Singer Babiarz
International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences , 2015
Abstract: 

This article reviews empirical evidence on the micro-level consequences of family planning programs in middle- and low-income countries. In doing so, it focuses on fertility outcomes (the number and timing of births), women’s health and socioeconomic outcomes (mortality, human capital, and labor force participation), and children’s health and socio-economic outcomes throughout the life cycle.

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Journal Articles

An Exploration of China's Mortality Decline under Mao: A Provincial Analysis, 1950-1980

Grant Miller, Grant Miller, Karen Eggleston, Kim Singer Babiarz, Qiong Zhang
Population Studies (Cambridge) , 2014

Between 1950 and 1980, China experienced the most rapid sustained increase in life expectancy of any population in documented global history. We know of no study that has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of the various explanations proposed for this gain in survival. We have created and analysed a new, province-level panel data set spanning the decades between 1950 and 1980 by combining historical information from China's public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that gains in school enrolment and public health campaigns together are associated with 55–70 per cent of China's dramatic reductions in infant and under-5 mortality during our study period. These results underscore the importance of non-medical determinants of population health, and suggest that, in some circumstances, general education of the population may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions.

Mao Mortality Analysis Data (Stata File)

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Working Papers

The Stanford-India Emergency Management and Research Institute (EMRI) Study: Early Findings

Grant Miller, Grant Miller, Kim Singer Babiarz, Nomita Divi, S.V. Mahadevan
Stanford University , 2014
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Journal Articles

The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign and Russia's Mortality Crisis

Jay Bhattacharya, Christina Gathmann, Grant Miller
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics , 2013

Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia’s 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994 (the “Russian Mortality Crisis”). Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol- related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates a different explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. We use archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1970-2000 and find that:

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Journal Articles

Impact of the Chiranjeevi Yojana Program on Institutional Deliveries and Birth Outcomes in Gujarat, India

Sebastian Bauhoff, Manoj Mohanan, Gerard La Forgia, Kim Singer Babiarz, Kultar Singh, Grant Miller
Bulletin of the World Health Organization , 2013
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Journal Articles

To Promote Adoption of Household Health Technologies, Think Beyond Health

Mark C. Thurber, Christina Warner, Lauren Platt, Xander Slaski, Rajesh Gupta, Grant Miller
American Journal of Public Health , 2013

Health risks from poor malaria control, unsafe water, and indoor air pollution are responsible for an important share of the global disease burden—and they can be addressed by efficacious household health technologies that have existed for decades. However, coverage rates of these products among populations at risk remain disappointingly low. We conducted a review of the medical and public health literatures and found that health considerations alone are rarely sufficient motivation for households to adopt and use these technologies.

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Journal Articles

HIV Development Assistance and Adult Mortality in Africa

Eran Bendavid, CB Holmes, Jay Bhattacharya, Grant Miller
Journal of the American Medical Association , 2012

Context  The effect of global health initiatives on population health is uncertain. Between 2003 and 2008, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the largest initiative ever devoted to a single disease, operated intensively in 12 African focus countries. The initiative's effect on all-cause adult mortality is unknown.

Objective  To determine whether PEPFAR was associated with relative changes in adult mortality in the countries and districts where it operated most intensively.

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