Publications

fsi books

Publications

Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.

Featured Publications

Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

A new report led by Rose Gottemoeller on non-strategic nuclear warhead policies in Europe, particulary in light of Russia's changing status in the global nuclear community.
3D mockup cover of APARC's volume 'South Korea's Democracy in Crisis'

South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis

A close look at what is driving illiberalism and democratic delcine in today’s Korea, including political polarization, politicization of institutions, societal inequality, education, and social media.
System Error book cover and authors

System Error: Where Big Tech Went Wrong and How We Can Reboot

A forward-thinking manifesto which reveals how big tech’s obsession with optimization and efficiency has sacrificed fundamental human values.

Publications

Filter:

Filter results Close
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
  • expanded
Policy Briefs

Policy Roundup: June 2022

Clifton B. Parker
2022 June 27, 2022

Key policy takeaways from Michael McFaul on helping Russians who oppose Putin; Kathryn Stoner on how Putin's War has ruined Russia; Steven Pifer on U.S.-Russia relations; Rose Gottemoeller on U.S. policy towards China in the Pacific region; David Studdert on the risks of guns in the home; Herb Lin on cybersecurity, and Hakeem Jefferson on the Jan. 6 hearings.

Show body
Journal Articles

Impact of Parental Beliefs on Child Developmental Outcomes: A Quasi-Experiment in Rural China

Lei Wang, Conghong Yang, Dingjing Jiang, Siqi Zhang, Qi Jiang, Scott Rozelle
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022 June 13, 2022

This paper examines the impact of parental beliefs on child development outcomes (for both cognitive and social–emotional skills) based on a three-wave longitudinal survey in rural China. The survey waves were conducted when the sample children were 18–30 months, 22–36 months, and 49–65 months, respectively. A total of 815 children and their primary caregivers who participated in all three wave surveys were enrolled in this study. Using difference-in-differences and propensity score matching approaches, the results indicate that strengthened parental beliefs have a positive and significant impact on child social–emotional development. Specifically, between the periods of the Wave 1 survey (when children were 18–30 months old) and the Wave 3 survey (when children were 49–65 months old), and between the Wave 2 survey (when children were 22–36 months old) and the Wave 3 survey, strengthened parental beliefs were causally associated with more favorable child social–emotional scores by 0.44 SD (p < 0.01) and 0.49 SD (p < 0.01), respectively. No significant impact, however, was found between the period of the Wave 1 survey and the Wave 2 survey. In contrast, weakened parental beliefs had a negative and significant impact on child social–emotional development. Specifically, weakened parental beliefs were causally associated with worse child social–emotional abilities by 0.35 SD (p < 0.01), 0.30 SD (p < 0.01), and 0.22 (p < 0.05) for the time period of the Wave 1 to Wave 2, Wave 1 to Wave 3, and Wave 2 to Wave 3, respectively. No significant impact of parental beliefs, however, was found on child cognitive development. In addition, the findings of the mediation analysis show that only a marginal impact of parental beliefs on child social–emotional development can be indirectly explained by parental beliefs through parenting practices. This study calls on policy makers to improve parental beliefs and parenting practices in the hope that it will lead to better child development in rural China.

Show body
Journal Articles

Understanding the Challenge of China’s Rise: Fixing Conceptual Confusion about Intentions

Oriana Skylar Mastro
Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2022 June 13, 2022
Show body
Journal Articles

Early Parenting Interventions to Foster Human Capital in Developing Countries

Dorien Emmers, Juan Carlos Caro, Scott Rozelle, Sean Sylvia
Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2022 June 13, 2022

One out of every three children under age 5 in developing countries lives in conditions that impede human capital development. In this study, we survey the literature on parenting training programs implemented before age 5, with the aim to increase parental investment in human capital accumulation in developing countries. Our review focuses on the implementation and effectiveness of parenting training programs (i.e., training in child psychosocial stimulation and/or training about nutrition). We emphasize the mechanisms that drive treatment-induced change in human capital outcomes and identify the demand- and supply-side behaviors that affect efficacy and effectiveness. Although the literature includes evidence on program features that are associated with successful interventions, further evidence on the dynamics of human capital formation, documentation of medium- to long-term persistence of treatment impacts, and research on the implementation and evaluation of programs at scale are needed to delineate a scalable and inclusive program that provides long-term treatment impacts.

Show body
Commentary

Medical Device Security Offers Proving Ground for Cybersecurity Action

James X. Dempsey
2022 June 9, 2022

Published in Lawfare 

Show body
Books

Geography Is Destiny

Ian Morris
Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2022 June 7, 2022

Britain and the World: A 10,000-Year History

Show body
Working Papers

Frameworks for a Developmental Welfare State: Lessons From Pakistan's Ehsaas Programme

Sir Michael Barber, Muqueet Shahzad
CDDRL Working Papers, 2022 June 6, 2022
Show body
Journal Articles

Slanted Narratives, Social Media, and Foreign Influence in Libya

Shelby Grossman, Katie Jonsson, Nicholas Lyon, Lydia Sizer
Journal of Quantitative Description, 2022 June 3, 2022
Show body
Books

South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis

Gi-Wook Shin, Ho-Ki Kim
2022 June 2, 2022
Show body
Reports

Gabufacturing Dissent: An in-depth analysis of Gab

David Thiel, Miles McCain
2022 June 1, 2022

Gab was founded in 2016 as an uncensored alternative to mainstream social media platforms. Stanford Internet Observatory’s latest report looks at behaviors and dynamics across the platform.

Show body
Journal Articles

Impact of Vision Impairment and Ocular Morbidity and their Treatment on Depression and Anxiety in Children: A Systematic Review

Dongfeng Li, Ving Fai Chan, Gianni Virgili, Prabhath Piyasena, Habtamu Negash, Noelle Whitestone, Sarah O'Connor, Baixiang Xiao, Mike Clarke, David Cherwek, Manpreet Singh, Xinshu She, Huan Wang, Matthew Boswell, Grace Prakalapakorn, Jennifer patnaik, Nathan Congdon
Ophthalmology, 2022 May 31, 2022

Topic
This systematic review and meta-analysis summarizes existing evidence to establish whether vision impairment, ocular morbidity and their treatment are associated with depression and anxiety in children.

Clinical Relevance
Understanding and quantifying these associations support early detection and management of mental health symptoms in children with vision impairment and ocular morbidity. Additionally, this review provides evidence in favour of insurance coverage for timely strabismus surgery.

Methods
We searched nine electronic databases from inception to February 18, 2021, including observational and interventional studies assessing whether vision impairment and/or ocular morbidity and their treatment are associated with depression and/or anxiety in children. We used narrative synthesis and meta-analysis with the residual maximum likelihood method. A protocol was registered and published on The International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42021233323).

Results
Among 28,992 studies, 28,956 (99.9%) were excluded as duplicates or unrelated content. Among 36 remaining studies, 21 (58.3%) were observational studies concerning vision impairment, eight (22.2%) were observational studies concerning strabismus, and seven (19.4%) were interventional studies. Vision-impaired children experienced significantly higher scores of depression (Standard Mean Difference [SMD] 0.57, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.26-0.89, 11 studies) and anxiety (SMD 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.821, 14 studies) than normally-sighted children. In particular, myopic children experienced higher scores of depression (SMD 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.81, six studies) than normally-sighted children. Strabismus surgery significantly improved symptoms of depression (SMD: 0.59 95% CI 0.12-1.06, three studies) and anxiety (SMD: 0.69 95% CI 0.24-1.14, four studies) in children.

Discussion
Among children, vision impairment is associated with greater symptoms of depression and anxiety. Surgical treatment of strabismus improved these symptoms. Further randomized controlled trials exploring the impact of public health measures for myopia correction on mental health in children are needed. Scaling up access to strabismus surgery could improve the mental health of affected children.

Show body
Books

Streets of Gold

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan
2022 May 31, 2022

America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success

Show body
Policy Briefs

Policy Roundup: May 2022

Clifton B. Parker
2022 May 26, 2022

Key policy takeaways from Francis Fukuyama on why Ukraine will win; Jean Oi on U.S.-China climate cooperation; Rose Gottemoeller on nuclear arms control in Europe; Michael McFaul on sanctions and Russia; Larry Diamond on ranked-choice voting; and Renee DiResta on hate speech on social media.

Show body
Journal Articles

The Long-Run Consequences of The Opium Concessions for Out-Group Animosity on Java

Nicholas Kuipers
World Politics, 2022 May 25, 2022

This article examines the consequences of the opium concession system in the Dutch East Indies—a nineteenth-century institution through which the Dutch would auction the monopolistic right to sell opium in a given locality.

Show body
Journal Articles

The obsolescing bargain crosses the Belt and Road Initiative: renegotiations on BRI projects

Michael Bennon, Francis Fukuyama
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2022 May 18, 2022

A study examining the BRI through the lens of the obsolescing bargain to evaluate the practices of China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and policy banks in mitigating political risk.

Show body
Commentary

Exceptions in new US state privacy laws leave data without security coverage

James X. Dempsey
2022 May 17, 2022

Published in the International Association of Privacy Professionals

Show body
Journal Articles

Academic Performance and the Link with Depressive Symptoms among Rural Han and Minority Chinese Adolescents

Tianli Feng, Xiyuan Jia, Lucy Pappas, Xiaojun Zheng, Teresa Shao, Letao Sun, Charlie Weisberg, Madeline Lu Li, Scott Rozelle, Yue Ma
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022 May 16, 2022

The objectives of this paper were to examine the risk of depression and depressive symptoms among Han and minority children and adolescents in rural China, the links between academic performance and depressive symptoms, and the prevalence of these links among specific subgroups. A total of 8392 4th, 5th, and 6th grade students at 105 sample rural schools in eight low-income counties and districts in a prefectural-level city in Southwestern China were randomly selected using a three-step sampling strategy. A total of 51% of the sample were female (SD = 0.50), and the age range was 7 to 19 years (mean = 11.35 years; SD = 1.05). Using the Patient Health Questionnaire 8-item depression scale, the prevalence of depressive symptoms in the sample was assessed, while data on students’ academic performance (standardized math test) and demographic characteristics were also collected. Our results show that the rates of major depression were 19% for Han students, 18% for Tibetan students, and 22% for Yi students; the rates of severe depression were 2% for Han and Tibetan students, and 3% for Yi students. Yi students were at significantly higher risks for major and severe depression than Han students. We conducted multivariate regression and heterogeneous analyses. Academic performance was negatively and significantly correlated to depressive symptoms. Across the whole sample, students with lower math scores, minority students, boys, younger students, and students with migrant parents were most vulnerable to depressive symptoms. The heterogeneous analysis suggests that among poor-performing students, subgroups at higher risk for depression include boys, non-boarding students, and students whose mothers had graduated from high school or above. These findings indicate a need to improve mental health outcomes of rural Han and minority primary school students, targeting academic performance for possible intervention.

Show body
Journal Articles

Driving while unauthorized: Auto insurance remains unchanged when providing driver licenses to unauthorized immigrants in California

Hans Lueders, Micah Mumper
Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2022 May 12, 2022

What is the effect of offering driver's licenses to undocumented people? Hans Lueders and Micah Mumper offer answers.

Show body
Reports

Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

Rose Gottemoeller
2022 May 11, 2022

A team of experts led by Rose Gottemoeller has produced a new report for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies on non-strategic nuclear warhead policies in Europe, particulary in light of Russia's changing status in the global nuclear community.

Show body
Books

Liberalism and Its Discontents

Francis Fukuyama
2022 May 10, 2022

A short book about the challenges to liberalism from the right and the left by the bestselling author of The Origins of Political Order.

Show body
Journal Articles

Stuck in the Middle School Rut: Can Anything Improve Academic Achievement in Rural Chinese Middle Schools?

Fei Qin, Huanmin Hu, Prashant Loyalka, Sarah-Eve Dill, Scott Rozelle
Journal of Development Effectiveness, 2022 May 1, 2022

Academic achievement in middle schools in rural China remains poor for many students. This study examines whether programmes and interventions can improve academic achievement by reviewing rigorous experimental evaluations of nine programmes (11 interventions) on 47,480 rural middle school students in China. The results find none of the interventions improved academic achievement. Moreover, we find no evidence for heterogeneous treatment effects by student gender, age or previous academic achievement. These results may be due in part to the academically-demanding nature of the middle school curriculum, which is applied universally to students with varying levels of cognitive ability.

Show body

Pages