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Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.

Featured Publications

System Error book cover and authors

System Error: Where Big Tech Went Wrong and How We Can Reboot

A forward-thinking manifesto which reveals how big tech’s obsession with optimization and efficiency has sacrificed fundamental human values.
Book cover showing a robotic hand holding an older human hand.

Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific

A timely look at how demographic changes shape the supply of innovation and the demand for specific kinds of innovation in the Asia-Pacific.
Book cover of Russia Resurrected and author Kathryn Stoner

Russia Resurrected

An assessment of Russia that suggests that we should look beyond traditional means of power to understand its strength and capacity to disrupt international politics.

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Journal Articles

Displacing fishmeal with protein derived from stranded methane

Sahar H. El Abbadi, Evan D. Sherwin, Adam R. Brandt, Stephen P. Luby, Craig S. Criddle
Nature Sustainability , 2022

Stanford researchers reveal how to turn a global warming liability into a profitable food security solution

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Journal Articles

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Chronic Disease Care in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam

Karen Eggleston, Kavita Singh, Yiqian Xin, Yuyin Xiao, Jianchao Quan, Daejung Kim, Thi-Phuong-Lan Nguyen, Dimple Kondal, Xinyi Yan, Guohong Li, Carmen S. Ng, Hyolim Kang, Hoang Minh Nam, Sailesh Mohan, Lijing L. Yan, Chenshu Shi, Jiayin Chen, Hoa Thi Hong Hanh, Viswanathan Mohan, Sandra Kong
Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health , 2022
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Journal Articles

China’s Local Government Debt: The Grand Bargain

Jean C. Oi, Adam Y. Liu, Yi Zhang
The China Journal , 2022
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Journal Articles

Democracy's Arc: From Resurgent to Imperiled

Larry Diamond
Journal of Democracy , 2022

In his final essay as co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, Larry Diamond calls this moment the darkest for freedom in a half-century. Whether democracy regains its footing will depend on how democratic leaders and citizens respond to emboldened authoritarians and divisions within their own societies.

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Journal Articles

Transition Arrested

Nate Grubman
Journal of Democracy , 2022

Nate Grubman shows how the repeated failures of Tunisia’s once-promising democratic transition created a crisis ripe for exploitation by a populist outsider

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Journal Articles

Paths of Social-Emotional Development Before 3 Years Old and Child Development After 5 Years Old: Evidence from Rural China

Lei Wang, Yifei Chen, Siqi Zhang, Scott Rozelle
Early Human Development , 2022

Background: Social-emotional development during the first three years of life is associated with later social-emotional development and cognitive development. In rural China, research has found large shares of children under age three are developmentally delayed, yet little is known about the paths of social-emotional development before age 3 or how developmental paths predict later social-emotional skills and cognitive skills. 

Aims: To investigate the paths of child social-emotional development during ages 0–3 and examine how different paths predict social-emotional development and cognitive development at preschool age. 

Methods: Three waves of longitudinal panel data from 1245 children in rural Western China was collected. Child social-emotional development was measured by the Ages and Stages Questionnaire: Social-Emotional. Child cognitive development was measured by the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and by the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence-Fourth Edition. Four paths of child social-emotional development were classified: “never” social-emotionally delayed; “persistently” social-emotionally delayed; “improving,” or “deteriorating.” 

Results: 331 (27%) were never social-emotionally delayed; 373 children (30%) were persistently social-emotionally delayed; 149 children (12%) experienced improving social-emotional development; and 392 children (31%) experienced deteriorating social-emotional development. Children who were never social-emotionally delayed or who were on an “improving” path had higher social-emotional development at preschool age (p < .01). Children who were persistently social-emotionally delayed (p < .5) and on a deteriorating path (p < .01) had lower social-emotional development at preschool age. Children on the persistently delay path also were shown to have lower levels of cognitive development at preschool age (p < .01). 

Conclusions: Different paths of child social-emotional development before age 3 are associated with different social-emotional and cognitive development at preschool age.

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Journal Articles

How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey

Aytuğ Şaşmaz , Alper H. Yagci, Daniel Ziblatt
Comparative Political Studies , 2022

Why do voters support executive aggrandizement?

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Journal Articles

Bullying Victims in Rural Primary Schools: Prevalence, Correlates, and Consequences

Huan Wang, Jingjing Tang, Sarah-Eve Dill, Jiusi Xiao, Matthew Boswell, Claire Cousineau, Scott Rozelle
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 2022

School bullying is a widely recognized problem in developed countries, but remains under-investigated in developing countries, especially in remote rural areas. In this paper, we examine the prevalence, correlates, and consequences of bullying victimization and its relation to educational performance and creative attitudes. Using data from 10,528 students across 120 primary schools in rural China, we find an alarmingly high prevalence of bullying victimization and that several individual, family, and school characteristics are correlated with bullying victimization. Analyses indicate students who are bullied frequently score lower in Chinese, reading, and math tests and creative attitudes. Taken together, the results demonstrate a need for further research and policy interventions to reduce bullying in schools.

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Journal Articles

2007 Iran Nuclear NIE: More of the Story

Thomas Fingar
Intelligence and National Security , 2021
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Book Chapters

Nuclear Deterrence and the US-China Strategic Relationship

Oriana Skylar Mastro
2021

From Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation: Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century, edited by Stephan Frühling and Andrew O’Neil, published 2021 by ANU Press, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

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Journal Articles

Towards a unified approach to research on democratic backsliding

Haemin Jee, Hans Lueders, Rachel Myrick
Democratization , 2021

A growing literature examines democratic backsliding, but there is little consensus on when, where, and why it occurs.

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Journal Articles

Community policing does not build citizen trust in police or reduce crime in the Global South

Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia
Science , 2021

Is it possible to reduce crime without exacerbating adversarial relationships between police and citizens? Community policing is a celebrated reform with that aim, which is now adopted on six continents. However, the evidence base is limited, studying reform components in isolation in a limited set of countries, and remaining largely silent on citizen-police trust. We designed six field experiments with Global South police agencies to study locally designed models of community policing using coordinated measures of crime and the attitudes and behaviors of citizens and police. In a preregistered meta-analysis, we found that these interventions led to mixed implementation, largely failed to improve citizen-police relations, and did not reduce crime. Societies may need to implement structural changes first for incremental police reforms such as community policing to succeed.

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Journal Articles

When no bad deed goes punished: Relational contracting in Ghana and the UK

Elwyn Davies, Marcel Fafchamps
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization , 2021
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Journal Articles

Examining the Relation between Caregiver Mental Health and Student Outcomes in Rural China

Huan Wang, Claire Cousineau, Yuwei Adeline Hu, Grace Hu, Sunny Qi, Adrian Sun, Helen Wu, Scott Rozelle, Manpreet Singh
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 2021

Research continues to highlight the central relationship between caregivers’ mental health and their children’s development. This study examined the relation between primary caregivers’ mental health and school-aged children’s outcomes, including student mental health, resilience, and academic performance, in rural China. Using cross-sectional data from economically poor areas in the Gansu province, 2989 students (mean age = 11.51, 53.33% male, 46.67% female) and their primary caregivers (74.2% female) completed the 21-item, self-report Depression Anxiety Stress Scale. Students also completed the 25-item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale and a standardized math test. The results indicated a high prevalence of caregiver depression (31%), stress (39%), and anxiety (24%). Characteristics that were significantly correlated with caregiver mental health issues included being a grandparent, having a low socioeconomic status and low education level, and living in a household with at least one migrant worker. Apart from caregiver stress and student resilience, caregiver mental health issues were negatively correlated with all student outcomes, including student mental health, resilience, and academic performance. Although additional empirical research is needed to investigate the associations between caregiver mental health and student outcomes, our results suggest that rural communities could benefit greatly from programs focused on improving the mental health of caregivers and this, in turn, may have a positive impact on student outcomes.

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Books

Perceptions of Medieval Manuscripts

Elaine Treharne
2021

The Phenomenal Book

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Working Papers

Markets under Siege: How Differences in Political Beliefs can move Financial Markets

Saumitra Jha, Peter Koudijs
2021

Can differences in beliefs about politics, particularly the benefits of war and peace, move markets? During the Siege of Paris by the Prussian army (1870-71) and its aftermath, we document that the price of the French 3% sovereign bond (rente) differed persistently between the Bourse in Paris and elsewhere, despite being one of the most widely held and actively traded financial assets in continental Europe. Further, these differences were large, reaching the equivalent of almost 1% of French GDP in overall value. We show these differences manifested themselves during the period of limited arbitrage induced by the Siege and persisted until the terms of peace were revealed. As long as French military resistance continued, the rente price was higher in Paris than the outside markets, but when the parties ceased fire and started negotiating peace terms this pattern was reversed. Further, while the price responded more to war events in Paris, the price responded more to peace events elsewhere. These specific patterns are difficult to reconcile with other potential mechanisms, including differential information sets, need for liquidity, or relative market thickness. Instead, we argue, these results are consistent with prices reflecting the updating of different prevailing political beliefs that existed in Paris and elsewhere about the benefits of war and peace.

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Journal Articles

Postnatal Mental Health, Hand Washing Practices, and Infant Illness in Rural China

Qi Jiang, Nourya Cohen, Mika Ohtori, Jie Gao, Qingzhi Wang, Evelyn Zhang, Sabrina Zhu, Hannah Johnstone, Yian Guo, Sarah-Eve Dill, Huan Zhou, Scott Rozelle
Frontiers in Global Women's Health , 2021

Background: Maternal mental health problems play an important role in infant well-being. Although western countries have extensively studied the associations between maternal mental disorders, hygiene practices and infant health, little is known in developing settings. This study investigates the correlations between postnatal mental health problems, hand washing practices and infant illness in rural western China. Methods: A total of 720 mothers of infants aged 0–6 months from four poor counties in rural western China were included in the survey. Mental health symptoms were assessed using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21). Questions about infant illness and hand washing practices followed evaluative surveys from prior studies. Adjusted ordinary least squares regressions were used to examine correlations between postnatal mental health (depression, anxiety, and stress) symptoms, hand washing practices, and infant illness outcomes. Results: Maternal depression, anxiety and stress symptoms were significantly associated with reduced hand washing overall and less frequent hand washing after cleaning the infant's bottom. Mental health symptoms were also associated with a higher probability of infants showing two or more illness symptoms and visiting a doctor for illness symptoms. Individual hand washing practices were not significantly associated with infant illness; however, a composite measure of hand washing practices was significantly associated with reduced probability of infant illness. Conclusion: Postnatal mental health problems are prevalent in rural China and significantly associated with infant illness. Policy makers and practitioners should investigate possible interventions to improve maternal and infant well-being.

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Journal Articles

Urban-Rural Health Insurance Integration in China

Qin Zhou, Qing He, Karen Eggleston, Gordon G. Liu
Applied Economics , 2021

Impact on Health Care Utilization, Financial Risk Protection, and Health Status

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Working Papers

The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh

Stephen P. Luby, et al
Innovations for Poverty Action , 2021

A randomized trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh during COVID-19 shows that the intervention increased mask-use and reduced symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.

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Books

The Courteous Power

John D. Ciorciari, Kiyoteru Tsutsui
2021

Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era

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Commentary

Is America Really Back?

Thomas Fingar
2021

A Dialogue between Dr. Thomas Fingar and Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret.) on the Current State of China-U.S. Relations

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Commentary

Our Epistemological Crisis: "Ilmu Budaya" and "Two Cultures" Revisited

Donald K. Emmerson
2021

Academic Oration on the 63rd Anniversary of the Faculty of Cultural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran

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