Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University


FSI Stanford Publications


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Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution

Journal Article

Authors
Terry L. Root - Professor of Biological Sciences, by courtesy and FSI Senior Fellow at Stanford University
Dena MacMynowski - Postdoctoral Scholar and CESP Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Stanford University
Michael D. Mastrandrea - Stanford University
Stephen H. Schneider - Co-director, CESP; FSI Senior Fellow and Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor of Biological Sciences; Professor, by courtesy, of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University

Published by
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102 no. 21, page(s) 7465-7469
May 16, 2005


Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climate change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

Topics: Climate change