Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University


FSI Stanford Publications


Image of Cover

Evaluating Detection of an Inhalational Anthrax Outbreak

Journal Article

Authors
DL Buckeridge
Douglas K. Owens - Stanford University
P Switzer
J Frank
MA Musent

Published by
Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol. 12 no. 12, page(s) 1942-1949
2006


Timely detection of an inhalational anthrax outbreak is critical for clinical and public health management. Syndromic surveillance has received considerable investment, but little is known about how it will perform relative to routine clinical case finding for detection of an inhalational anthrax outbreak. We conducted a simulation study to compare clinical case finding with syndromic surveillance for detection of an outbreak of inhalational anthrax. After simulated release of 1 kg of anthrax spores, the proportion of outbreaks detected first by syndromic surveillance was 0.59 at a specificity of 0.9 and 0.28 at a specificity of 0.975. The mean detection benefit of syndromic surveillance was 1.0 day at a specificity of 0.9 and 0.32 days at a specificity of 0.975. When syndromic surveillance was sufficiently sensitive to detect a substantial proportion of outbreaks before clinical case finding, it generated frequent false alarms.

Topics: Investment