Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University


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Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program

Journal Article

David Caswell - Affiliate at CISAC
Ronald A. Howard - Professor, Management Science and Engineering; Professor, Mgmt. Science by courtesy
Elisabeth Paté-Cornell - Professor and Chair, Department of Management Science and Engineering; CISAC Affiliated Faculty Member and FSI Senior Fellow by courtesy

Published by
Decision Analysis, Vol. 8 no. 1, page(s) 30-45
March 2011


Finding the best national strategy to prevent or delay a country from acquiring nuclear weapons continues to be a critical issue for U.S. policy makers. In this paper, we build on previous work to develop a model that addresses this question. This model identifies the strategy that minimizes the disutility of the overall cost of the strategy and the cost of the consequences resulting from the strategy. We illustrate the insights that the model provides with a case study of Iran's nuclear weapons program.