Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University


FSI Stanford Publications


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Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change

Journal Article

Authors
Michael D. Mastrandrea - Stanford University
Stephen H. Schneider - Co-director, CESP; FSI Senior Fellow and Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor of Biological Sciences; Professor, by courtesy, of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University

Published by
Science, Vol. 304, page(s) 571-575
April 23, 2004


Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system - climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from 45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Topics: Climate change