Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University


FSI Stanford News


November 5, 2004 - CHP/PCOR In the News

Garber editorial takes issue with predictions of looming physician shortage

An editorial co-authored by Alan M. Garber and Harold Sox in the Nov. 2 Annals of Internal Medicine takes issue with another article in the journal, which projects that by 2020 the United States will have 200,000 fewer physicians than it needs unless immediate steps are taken, such as increasing the number of U.S. medical schools and residency programs. Garber and Sox agree that demographic and economic trends could increase the demand for physician services in the coming years, but they assert that Cooper's forecast contains too many uncertainties to justify immediate action. They point to several factors that could restrain future demand for physician services, such as a healthier aging population, changes in government policy, and changes in the price of healthcare.

Garber's editorial was cited in news articles by Reuters and WebMD that highlighted the predictions of a looming physician shortage.