Garber editorial takes issue with predictions of looming physician shortage
An editorial co-authored by Alan M. Garber and Harold Sox in the Nov. 2 Annals of Internal Medicine takes issue with another article in the journal, which projects that by 2020 the United States will have 200,000 fewer physicians than it needs unless immediate steps are taken, such as increasing the number of U.S. medical schools and residency programs. Garber and Sox agree that demographic and economic trends could increase the demand for physician services in the coming years, but they assert that Cooper's forecast contains too many uncertainties to justify immediate action. They point to several factors that could restrain future demand for physician services, such as a healthier aging population, changes in government policy, and changes in the price of healthcare.
Garber's editorial was cited in news articles by Reuters and WebMD that highlighted the predictions of a looming physician shortage.
Alan M. Garber
CHP/PCOR Director; Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor and Professor of Medicine and Professor, by courtesy, of Economics, of Health Research and Policy, and of Economics in the Graduate School of Business; FSI Senior Fellow & Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Senior Fellow
U.S. Physician Workforce: Serious Questions Raised, Answers Needed
Alan M. Garber, Harold S. Sox
Annals of Internal Medicine vol. 141, 9 (2004)
Reuters News article, "Shortage of 200,000 Doctors Predicted in U.S."
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....
Web MD editorial, "U.S. faces future doctor shortage"
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933...


