Date and Time
November 5, 2008
1:30 PM - 3:00 PM

Availability
Open to the public
No RSVP required

Speaker
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert - Stanford University

The talk will discuss model evaluation and validation in the context of simulation models used for cost-effectiveness and policy analyses. It will present results of the iterative assessment of a microsimulation model of the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical carcinogenesis in the United States. We focus on model evaluation related to high-grade pre-cancer (CIN2,3) because real-world studies of CIN2,3 that do not expose patients to cancer risks are extremely challenging, leading to few data and considerable uncertainty. CIN2,3 is extremely important, as it is both the clinical target for treatment and the clinical surrogate for invasive cancer in many vaccine and screening trials. Studies, especially of interventions such as screening and treatment, continue to report their results, providing an opportunity to leverage their data by comparing results from model simulations of these studies to the actual observed results. To the extent concordance between model and studies is achieved, added credibility and confidence in long-term modeled policy outcomes may be warranted.