Date and Time
April 4, 2007
1:30 PM - 3:00 PM

Availability
Open to the public
No RSVP required

Speaker
Alok Bhargava - Professor in the Department of Economics at University of Houston

This paper analyzes the factors affecting emigration of physicians from sub-Saharan countries and the effects of this medical brain drain on number of deaths due to AIDS, life expectancy, and economic growth using country-level longitudinal data at 3-year intervals for the period 1990-2004. Data were compiled on the emigrating African physicians from the receiving 16 O.E.C.D. countries.

A comprehensive longitudinal database was developed by merging the medical brain drain variables with recent data on HIV prevalence, public health expenditures, physicians wages, and economic and demographic variables. A triangular system of equations was estimated using 5 time observations for medical brain drain rates, number of deaths due to AIDS, life expectancy, and GDP growth rates, taking into account the inter-dependence between these variables.

The main findings from estimating random effects models were, first, that lower wages and higher HIV prevalence rates predicted significantly higher medical brain drain from sub-Saharan African countries. Second, higher medical brain drain rates were associated with greater number of deaths due to AIDS but the effects of medical brain drain on life expectancy were not evident in this time frame. Finally, the regressions for GDP growth rates indicated the need for taking into account the underlying trends in population; investment in the economies and life expectancy were significant predictors of GDP growth rates. Overall, the empirical results underscored the need for higher expenditures on HIV prevention and treatment, and for improving economic conditions of physicians for mitigating the adverse consequences of HIV pandemic on indicators of well-being in sub-Saharan African countries.