Crisis, Uncertainty, and Democracy: Black Swans, Fat Tails, and the Futures of Political Science

How certain is the future?

Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson addressed the intersection between crisis, uncertainty, and democracy in a keynote presentation at the 2011 annual conference of the Australian Political Studies Association.

Emmerson examined such global events as the large-scale financial crises of recent decades, the 9/11 attacks, and the Arab Spring. He argued that the current century is marked by increasing complexity and uncertainty, which interact to challenge global, regional, and national security in novel ways. It is urgent, he said, to adapt and craft political institutions that can respond quickly and aptly to these new demands.